Waiting for Certainty on COVID-19 Antibody Tests — At What Cost?
2020
This perspective anticipates the availability of serologic antibody testing and considers its potential usefulness in mitigation policy to reduce COVID-19 transmission. For example: Could we screen for serologic antibodies as a proxy for possible immunity and identify people who could return to the workplace with less severe mitigation measures?
The authors acknowledge the uncertainties raised by many policy actors, including the WHO, such as, "Do antibodies confer immunity and, if so, for how long? How accurate is the antibody test? What are the individual and collective harms that may be caused if persons with no actual immunity are certified for return to the workplace? How great is the danger that people desperate to return to work may seek intentional exposure to the virus in the hope of developing antibodies?"
The major point made by the authors is that waiting to “guarantee” the accuracy of serologic antibody testing is unlikely to be a winning strategy. In the context of a pandemic, where options are limited, uncertainties are inevitable, and decisions need to be made, we need to weigh the potential benefits and consequences of using an imperfect test with the costs and consequences of doing nothing.
Waiting for Certainty on COVID-19 Antibody Tests — At What Cost?
Source:
Weinstein MC, Freedberg KA, Hyle EP et al. Waiting for Certainty on COVID-19 Antibody Tests — At What Cost? NEJM 2020; 383 (6). https://doi.org/10.1056/nejmp2017739