Resources Repository
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GuidelinesPublication 2012Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-6
This paper discusses methods for the reporting of uncertainty, both in terms of deterministic sensitivity …
This paper discusses methods for the reporting of uncertainty, both in terms of deterministic sensitivity analysis techniques and probabilistic methods. Stochastic (first-order) uncertainty is distinguished from both parameter (second-order) uncertainty and from heterogeneity, with structural uncertainty relating to the model itself forming another level of uncertainty. The article describes the process of estimating model inputs, whether these are point estimates or distributions. It also explores the link between parameter uncertainty, decision uncertainty, and value-of-information analysis.…
Calibration/Validation | Value of Information | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine -
BookPublication 2012Elgar Companion to Health Economics, 2nd Edition
This collection brings together more than 50 contributions from some of the most influential researchers in …
This collection brings together more than 50 contributions from some of the most influential researchers in health economics. It covers theoretical and empirical issues in health economics, with a range of material on equity and efficiency in health care systems, health technology assessment and issues of concern for developing countries. This revised second edition is expanded to include four new chapters, while all existing chapters have been extensively updated. The Elgar Companion to Health Economics, Second Edition…
Decision Theory | Value of Information | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global -
ReviewPublication 2011Simulation Models of Obesity: A Review of the Literature
Simulation models combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for …
Simulation models combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for examining how the effects of obesity unfold over time and impact population health. They can aid in the understanding of the complex interaction of the drivers of diet and activity and their relation to health outcomes. This paper provided an overview of different types of simulation models used to evaluate the potential impact of policies to address the obesity epidemic.…
Decision Analysis | Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine -
BookPublication 2010Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Professional Judgment
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment …
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment and decision making literature, and behavioral economics. It combines quantitative approaches to empirical analysis and decision making (i.e., statistics and decision science) with the psychological literature illustrating the systematic errors of the intuitive decision maker.
Decision Analysis | Value of Information | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Test Performance | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | North America -
BookPublication 2009Encyclopedia of Medical Decision Making
This encyclopedia addresses both prescriptive and descriptive decision making through a conceptual structure consisting of six …
This encyclopedia addresses both prescriptive and descriptive decision making through a conceptual structure consisting of six components of classical decision analysis. It includes articles that have been prepared by more than 200 contributors from around the world. The alphabetical organization of the encyclopedia facilitates access to information. A Reader’s Guide, organized by category of the decisionmaking process includes the following 7 components: Identification of the decision maker - in other words, who must choose. In general, there…
Decision Analysis | Value of Information | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Evidence Synthesis | Test Performance | Mathematical Models | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2005Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems
This review monograph was prepared in response to a request from the United States Air …
This review monograph was prepared in response to a request from the United States Air Force Research Laboratory for a study of modern decision science that would aid in its planning of research programs and, more specifically, developing methods and tools for decision support. The emphasis is on relatively high-level decisionmaking rather than, say, that of pilots or intelligence analysts in the midst of real-time operations. They focus largely on what the military refers to as…
Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Decision Psychology | Military/Defense | North America -
ReviewPublication 1982Decision Analysis: An Overview
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can …
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can and cannot do, why one should care to do this, and how one does it. Keeney describes decision analysis as "a formalization of common sense for decision problems which are too complex for informal use of common sense." He provides a more technical definition also, describing decision analysis as "a philosophy, articulated by a set of logical axioms, and a methodology…
Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Preferences/Values | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Science/Technology -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 1980Threshold Approach to Clinical Decision Making
This classic paper provides a "tutorial" for students learning about diagnostic testing, probability revision, and …
This classic paper provides a "tutorial" for students learning about diagnostic testing, probability revision, and how to calculate thresholds for testing, treatment, and no treatment. The authors describe how a physician's estimate of the probability that a patient has a particular disease is a principal factor in the determination of whether to withhold treatment, obtain more data by testing, or treat without subjecting the patient to the risks of further diagnostic tests. Using the concepts of decision analysis,…
Decision Analysis | Value of Information | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Health/Medicine