Resources Repository
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GuidelinesPublication 2012Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-6
This paper discusses methods for the reporting of uncertainty, both in terms of deterministic sensitivity …
This paper discusses methods for the reporting of uncertainty, both in terms of deterministic sensitivity analysis techniques and probabilistic methods. Stochastic (first-order) uncertainty is distinguished from both parameter (second-order) uncertainty and from heterogeneity, with structural uncertainty relating to the model itself forming another level of uncertainty. The article describes the process of estimating model inputs, whether these are point estimates or distributions. It also explores the link between parameter uncertainty, decision uncertainty, and value-of-information analysis.…
Mathematical Models | Value of Information | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2011Dynamic Microsimulation Models for Health Outcomes: A Review
This review article presents an overview of microsimulation modeling, focusing on the development and application …
This review article presents an overview of microsimulation modeling, focusing on the development and application of these models for health policy questions. Microsimulation models for health outcomes simulate individual event histories associated with key components of a disease process; these simulated life histories can be aggregated to estimate population-level effects of treatment on disease outcomes and the comparative effectiveness of treatments. The authors argue that methodological improvements in modeling approaches have been slowed by the…
Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine -
GuidelinesPublication 2011Calibrating Models in Economic Evaluation
This article provides guidance on the theoretical underpinnings of different calibration methods used for mathematical …
This article provides guidance on the theoretical underpinnings of different calibration methods used for mathematical models for economic evaluations. The calibration process is divided into seven steps and different potential methods at each step are discussed, focusing on the particular features of disease models in economic evaluation. The seven steps are (i) Which parameters should be varied in the calibration process? (ii) Which calibration targets should be used? (iii) What measure of goodness of fit…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2010Validation of Population-Based Disease Simulation Models: A Review
This article develops a framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models, and reviews the …
This article develops a framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models, and reviews the principles and methods for such models. While computer simulation models are used increasingly to support public health research and policy, questions about their quality persist. Based on the review, the authors formulated a set of recommendations for gathering evidence of model credibility. They find that evidence of model credibility derives from examining: 1) the process of model development, 2) the…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2008Modeling Cervical Cancer Prevention in Developed Countries
Decision-analytic models are increasingly developed to simulate disease burden and interventions in different settings in …
Decision-analytic models are increasingly developed to simulate disease burden and interventions in different settings in order to evaluate the benefits and cost-effectiveness of primary and secondary interventions. This article is a review of mathematical models that have been used to evaluate HPV vaccination in the context of developed countries with existing screening programs. Despite variations in model assumptions and uncertainty in existing data, pre-adolescent vaccination of females in the setting of current screening practices has…
Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
GuidelinesPublication 2007Preference Measurement in Economic Analysis
This guide includes an overview of the concepts of preference measurement and quality-adjusted life years, …
This guide includes an overview of the concepts of preference measurement and quality-adjusted life years, a description of the most common techniques used for measuring preferences in economic evaluation, a summary of experience measuring preferences in the VA Cooperative Studies Program.
Health Outcomes | Preferences/Values | Health/Medicine | North America -
ReviewPublication 2006Ethical Issues in Resource Allocation, Research, and New Product Development
Ethical dilemmas arising in setting priorities among interventions and among individuals in need of care …
Ethical dilemmas arising in setting priorities among interventions and among individuals in need of care are most acute when needs are great and resources few. This chapter from the Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries 2nd edition addresses some of these concerns, identifying some of the principal ethical issues that arise in the development and allocation of effective interventions for developing countries and discussing some alternative resolutions. Resource allocation in health and elsewhere should satisfy two main…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Culture/Society | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ReviewPublication 2001Modeling for Health Care and Other Policy Decisions: Uses, Roles and Validity
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making …
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making in health care and other domains. The role of models to support recommendations on the cost-effective use of medical technologies and pharmaceuticals is controversial. At the heart of the controversy is the degree to which experimental or other empirical evidence should be required prior to model use. The authors argue that the controversy stems in part from a misconception that…
Mathematical Models | Priority Setting/Ethics | Evidence Synthesis | Technology Assessment | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America