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Dynamic Microsimulation Models for Health Outcomes: A Review

2011

This review article presents an overview of microsimulation modeling, focusing on the development and application of these models for health policy questions. Microsimulation models for health outcomes simulate individual event histories associated with key components of a disease process; these simulated life histories can be aggregated to estimate population-level effects of treatment on disease outcomes and the comparative effectiveness of treatments.

The authors argue that methodological improvements in modeling approaches have been slowed by the lack of communication among modelers. In addition, there are few resources to guide individuals who may wish to use microsimulation projections to inform decisions. The authors discuss goals, overall components of the models, methods for selecting parameters to reproduce observed or expected results (calibration), methods for model checking (validation), and issues related to reporting and interpreting MSM findings (sensitivity analyses, reporting of variability, and model transparency).

 

Source:

Rutter CM, Zaslavsky A, Feuer E. Dynamic Microsimulation Models for Health Outcomes: a Review. Medical Decision Making 2011; 31 (1): 10-18. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3404886/pdf/nihms-393222.pdf