Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2013Estimated Mortality Impact of Vaccinations 2011–2020 in 73 GAVI Alliance Countries
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted …
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011–2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese…
Global Governance | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2019Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories …
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI) in the United States. Self-reported BMI from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias. Multinomial regressions were then fitted for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI <25), overweight (25 to…
Calibration/Validation | Social Determinants | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Calibration/Validation | Social Determinants | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
ArticlePublication 2018Examining Evaluation Methods for Health Equity Policies
This article reviews diverse methods for evaluating public policies that address social determinants of health …
This article reviews diverse methods for evaluating public policies that address social determinants of health equity. Understanding approaches to evaluating public policies is essential in strengthening the evidence base that informs policy change. Examining 50 studies in the article, the authors find that most studies evaluating policies for health equity outcomes use observational research designs and regression techniques to analyze impact. Furthermore, the studies reviewed primarily relied on secondary data, and nearly three out of…
Evidence Synthesis | Global Governance | Social Determinants | Health Outcomes | Government/Law | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Cost-Effectiveness of Subsidizing Fruit and Vegetable through SNAP
A diet high in fruits and vegetables is associated with reduced risk of chronic disease …
A diet high in fruits and vegetables is associated with reduced risk of chronic disease - to incentivize consumption among low-income households one proposal is to make them more affordable through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). This cost effectiveness analysis adopts a societal perspective to estimate the value of subsidizing fruit and vegetable (FV) purchases among the one in seven Americans who participate in SNAP. A stochastic microsimulation model of obesity, type 2 diabetes, myocardial infarction,…
Social Determinants | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2016Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination With a Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine: Model Comparison
Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, …
Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 months following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. This paper reports predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine…
Global Governance | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2013Contribution of H. Pylori and Smoking to US Incidence of Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A Microsimulation Model
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading …
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. This analysis estimates the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type non-cardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. The authors developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to U.S. epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which…
Calibration/Validation | Social Determinants | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Modeling the Relative Risk of Incidence and Mortality of Select Vaccine-Preventable Diseases
Immunization is one of the most effective public health interventions, saving millions of lives every …
Immunization is one of the most effective public health interventions, saving millions of lives every year. Ethiopia has seen gradual improvements in immunization coverage and access to child health care services; however, inequalities in child mortality across wealth quintiles and regions remain persistent. This paper models the relative distributional incidence and mortality of four vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) (rotavirus diarrhea, human papillomavirus, measles, and pneumonia) by wealth quintile and geographic region in Ethiopia. The authors approach…
Evidence Synthesis | Social Determinants | Priority Setting/Ethics | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Conceptualizing Monetary Benchmarks for Health Investments toward Poverty Reduction
Public spending can improve population well-being, for example, by averting or reducing poverty. This article …
Public spending can improve population well-being, for example, by averting or reducing poverty. This article aims to conceptualize monetary benchmarks for health sector investments oriented towards poverty alleviation in low- and lower-middle-income countries. Priority setting in low- and lower-middle-income countries could be informed by health-sector PRBs (poverty reduction benchmarks), in addition to burden of disease and cost-effectiveness considerations. The computed PRBs, expressed in dollars per poverty case averted, can possibly be viewed in a manner…
Evidence Synthesis | Social Determinants | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global