Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2024Hepatitis C Elimination in Rwanda: Progress, Feasibility, Economic Evaluation
This study evaluates the impact of Rwanda's national program launched in 2018 to eliminate hepatitis …
This study evaluates the impact of Rwanda's national program launched in 2018 to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) and identifies strategies to achieve World Health Organization (WHO) elimination goals by 2030. Employing a microsimulation model spanning 2015 to 2050, the analysis assesses HCV epidemic trends, prevalence, mortality, and total care costs under various scenarios. Results show that between 2018 and 2022, over 7 million people were screened and 60,000 treated, projecting Rwanda's potential achievement of…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Microsimulation | Health Systems | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Conceptualizing Monetary Benchmarks for Health Investments toward Poverty Reduction
Public spending can improve population well-being, for example, by averting or reducing poverty. This article …
Public spending can improve population well-being, for example, by averting or reducing poverty. This article aims to conceptualize monetary benchmarks for health sector investments oriented towards poverty alleviation in low- and lower-middle-income countries. Priority setting in low- and lower-middle-income countries could be informed by health-sector PRBs (poverty reduction benchmarks), in addition to burden of disease and cost-effectiveness considerations. The computed PRBs, expressed in dollars per poverty case averted, can possibly be viewed in a manner…
Evidence Synthesis | Health Systems | Priority Setting/Ethics | Social Determinants | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Cost-Effectiveness of Masked Hypertension Screening and Treatment
The study assessed the health and economic outcomes of screening and treating masked hypertension in …
The study assessed the health and economic outcomes of screening and treating masked hypertension in U.S. adults using the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Policy Model, a microsimulation model. The model simulated 100,000 adults suspected of having masked hypertension (office blood pressure [BP] of 120–129/<80 mm Hg, not on antihypertensive medications, and without a history of CVD). Interventions included: usual care alone, usual care with ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), and usual care with home BP monitoring (HBPM).…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2019Global Childhood Cancer Survival Estimates and Priority-Setting: A Simulation-Based Analysis
This modelling study provides estimates of global childhood cancer survival, accounting for the impact of …
This modelling study provides estimates of global childhood cancer survival, accounting for the impact of multiple factors that affect cancer outcomes in children. The authors developed a microsimulation model to simulate childhood cancer survival for 200 countries/territories, accounting for clinical and epidemiologic factors, including country-specific treatment variables, such as availability of chemotherapy, radiation, and surgery, and calibrated the model to empirical data from the CONCORD-2 and CONCORD-3 studies using an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach. The…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Child/Nutrition | Clinical Care | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Calibration/Validation | Social Determinants | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2022Duration & Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in Hepatitis C Patients After Viral Eradication
This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients cured …
This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients cured of hepatitis C virus (HCV) using oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). A microsimulation model of HCC natural history in individuals with HCV-related advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis post-DAAs was developed, integrating data on HCC incidence, tumor progression, surveillance adherence, and health state costs/utilities. Biannual ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein surveillance were compared to no surveillance over varying durations (5 years to lifetime). Results indicate…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Cost-Effectiveness of Screening for Atrial Fibrillation Using Wearable Devices
This economic evaluation assesses the cost-effectiveness of atrial fibrillation (AF) screening strategies, particularly utilizing wrist-worn …
This economic evaluation assesses the cost-effectiveness of atrial fibrillation (AF) screening strategies, particularly utilizing wrist-worn wearable devices, to prevent strokes. Conducted using a microsimulation decision-analytic model, the study spans from September 8, 2020, to May 23, 2022, incorporating 30 million simulated individuals representative of the US population aged 65 years or older. Eight screening strategies, including six employing wrist-worn devices and two using traditional methods, were compared against no screening. Results indicate that all wrist-worn…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | North America