Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2019Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories …
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI) in the United States. Self-reported BMI from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias. Multinomial regressions were then fitted for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI <25), overweight (25 to…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | North America | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | North America | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes -
ArticlePublication 2017Distributional Benefits of Tobacco Tax and Smoke-Free Workplaces in China
This study used the extended cost–effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate, across income quintiles of the …
This study used the extended cost–effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate, across income quintiles of the male population, the premature deaths averted, the change in tax revenues generated, and the financial risk protection procured, that would follow a 75% increase in cigarette prices through substantial increments in excise tax fully passed onto consumers, and a nationwide total implementation of workplace smoking bans. A 75% increase in cigarette prices would avert about 24 million premature deaths among…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Asia & Pacific | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2015Consequences of Tobacco Tax in Rich and Poor Smokers in China: An ECEA
This study used the extended cost-effectiveness analysis methods to estimate, across income quintiles of the …
This study used the extended cost-effectiveness analysis methods to estimate, across income quintiles of the male population, the health benefits (years of life gained), the additional tax revenues raised, the net financial consequences for households, and the financial risk protection provided to households, that would be caused by a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax fully passed onto tobacco consumers in China. The analysis showed that a 50% increase in tobacco price through…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Asia & Pacific | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2013Agent-Based Simulation Modelling Approach to ECEA of Health Interventions
This study develops a dynamic agent-based simulation model, the Disease Control Priorities Simulation (DCPSim) model, …
This study develops a dynamic agent-based simulation model, the Disease Control Priorities Simulation (DCPSim) model, to estimate the health and economic benefits of health interventions and policies. Authors examined two different policies that can scale up the availability of drugs for secondary prevention of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in India: a universal public provision (UPP) that provides a drug for free at public health facilities, and a universal public finance (UPF) that provides a drug…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Dynamic Simulation | Asia & Pacific | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2019Impact of a Tax on Sweetened Beverages in the Philippines: an ECEA
This study used extended cost-effectiveness analyses to estimate the effect of the sweetened beverages tax …
This study used extended cost-effectiveness analyses to estimate the effect of the sweetened beverages tax in the Philippines on the numbers of premature deaths averted attributed to type 2 diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease and stroke, across income quintiles over the period 2018-2037. The study also estimated the financial benefits of the tax from reductions in out-of-pocket payments, direct medical costs averted, and government health-care cost savings. The analysis showed that the tax could avert…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Asia & Pacific | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2017Cost-Effectiveness of Subsidizing Fruit and Vegetable through SNAP
A diet high in fruits and vegetables is associated with reduced risk of chronic disease …
A diet high in fruits and vegetables is associated with reduced risk of chronic disease - to incentivize consumption among low-income households one proposal is to make them more affordable through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). This cost effectiveness analysis adopts a societal perspective to estimate the value of subsidizing fruit and vegetable (FV) purchases among the one in seven Americans who participate in SNAP. A stochastic microsimulation model of obesity, type 2 diabetes, myocardial infarction,…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | North America | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2013Contribution of H. Pylori and Smoking to US Incidence of Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A Microsimulation Model
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading …
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. This analysis estimates the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type non-cardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. The authors developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to U.S. epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | North America | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2011Model-Based Analyses to Compare Health and Economic Outcomes of Cancer Control: Inclusion of Disparities
In order to identify strategies that improve both population health and ensure its equitable distribution, …
In order to identify strategies that improve both population health and ensure its equitable distribution, the authors developed a typology of cancer disparities that considers types of inequalities among black, white, and Hispanic populations across different cancers. This paper reports on the typology using an existing disease simulation model of cervical cancer that was calibrated to clinical, epidemiological, and cost data in the United States and presents characteristics important for policy discussions. The typology proposed…
Priority Setting/Ethics | State-Transition | North America | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology