Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | North America -
Resource PortalWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2024National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, founded in 1863, has a mission to provide …
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, founded in 1863, has a mission to provide nonpartisan, objective guidance for decision makers on policy challenges in the context of science, engineering, and medicine. NAS reports and convening activities have a wide range of impacts on policy and practice. They guide the development of federal laws and regulations, improve the effectiveness of government programs, shape the direction of research fields, and inform public knowledge and dialogue about…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Global Governance | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Risk Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Injuries/Accidents | Health Systems | Climate/Environment | Energy/Engineering | Education/Labor | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Science/Technology | Global | North America | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Policy Translation -
ArticlePublication 2013Contribution of H. Pylori and Smoking to US Incidence of Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A Microsimulation Model
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading …
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. This analysis estimates the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type non-cardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. The authors developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to U.S. epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on 5-Year Net Survival of 11 Cancers in 200 Countries
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 …
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 countries/territories for 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate). The paper estimated current 5-year net survival for diagnosed cancers in each country and potential survival gains from increasing the availability of individual treatment and imaging modalities, and more comprehensive packages of scale-up. Global 5-year net survival for all 11 cancers (combined) is…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Estimates and Projections of Global, Regional and Country-Level Maternal Mortality by Cause, 1990-2050
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given …
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. The authors developed a structural microsimulation model of Global Maternal Health (GMatH) for 200 countries and territories using demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and health system data synthesized from the medical literature, Civil Registration Vital Statistics systems and Demographic and Health Survey data. The model was calibrated to empirical data from 1990 to…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Global -
Resource PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2023Resource Pack: Maternal Health Models and CEA
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides selected examples of …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides selected examples of modeling approaches used to conduct analyses relevant to maternal and reproductive health. Some papers focus on a particular problem (e.g., screening for prenatal syphilis, comparison of alternative strategies for safe abortion), while others explore strategies for reducing morbidity and mortality from the entire spectrum of pregnancy and childbirth-related complications. Several of the examples model the primary drivers of maternal mortality (e.g.,…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Costing Methods | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2022Health and Financial Risk Protection Outcomes in Economic Evaluations
Extended cost-effectiveness analysis was developed to evaluate health interventions in terms of level and distribution …
Extended cost-effectiveness analysis was developed to evaluate health interventions in terms of level and distribution of health gains and financial risk protection. This information is typically presented in a joint display format. This article develops and applies an algebraic money-metric formulation that incorporates all disaggregated outcomes and finds that ranking of health interventions is sensitive to the decision maker’s aversion to inequality across income groups and that financial risk protection gains are most important to…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Equity Impact of Minimum Unit Pricing of Alcohol
South Africa experiences significant levels of alcohol-related harm. Recent research suggests minimum unit pricing (MUP) …
South Africa experiences significant levels of alcohol-related harm. Recent research suggests minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol would be an effective policy, but high levels of income inequality raise concerns about equity impacts. This paper quantifies the equity impact of MUP on household health and finances in rich and poor drinkers in South Africa. Authors estimate MUP would reduce consumption more among the poorest than the richest drinkers. A MUP policy in South Africa has…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa