Resources Repository
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Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2023Survival Extrapolation Incorporating General Population Mortality Using Excess Hazard and Cure Models: Tutorial
The study examines the utility of excess hazard (EH) methods in reducing model uncertainty when …
The study examines the utility of excess hazard (EH) methods in reducing model uncertainty when estimating long-term survival in cost-effectiveness analyses. Using a case study of breast cancer patients, standard parametric survival models were compared with EH methods incorporating general population mortality rates, with and without a cure parameter. Results showed substantial variability in survival extrapolations across standard models, while EH methods, particularly EH cure models, significantly reduced uncertainty. Long-term treatment effects approached null for…
Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Europe -
ArticlePublication 2023Calibration and Validation of the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) Microsimulation Model Using Deep Neural Networks
This study explores the efficacy of machine learning (ML)-based emulators in calibrating complex microsimulation models, …
This study explores the efficacy of machine learning (ML)-based emulators in calibrating complex microsimulation models, using the Colorectal Cancer (CRC)-Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) model as a case study. ML algorithms, including deep neural networks (DNN), were trained and compared using data generated from the CRC-AIM model to predict various outcomes. The DNN outperformed other algorithms and efficiently predicted outcomes, reducing computational burden significantly. The calibrated CRC-AIM model demonstrated cross-model validity against established CISNET models…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Out-of-Pocket Expenditures & Financial Risks Associated with Treatment of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in Ethiopia
This study investigates out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures and associated catastrophic health expenditures (CHEs) for vaccine-preventable diseases …
This study investigates out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures and associated catastrophic health expenditures (CHEs) for vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) in Ethiopia. Through a cross-sectional costing analysis, data on OOP direct medical and nonmedical expenditures were collected from 995 households in 54 health facilities nationwide. The study focuses on VPDs in children under 5 years for pneumonia, diarrhea, measles, and pertussis, and in children under 15 years for meningitis. Mean OOP expenditures per disease episode ranged from $5·6 to…
Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Costing Methods | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Health and Financial Risk Protection Outcomes in Economic Evaluations
Extended cost-effectiveness analysis was developed to evaluate health interventions in terms of level and distribution …
Extended cost-effectiveness analysis was developed to evaluate health interventions in terms of level and distribution of health gains and financial risk protection. This information is typically presented in a joint display format. This article develops and applies an algebraic money-metric formulation that incorporates all disaggregated outcomes and finds that ranking of health interventions is sensitive to the decision maker’s aversion to inequality across income groups and that financial risk protection gains are most important to…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Priority Setting/Ethics | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Cost-Effectiveness of Masked Hypertension Screening and Treatment
The study assessed the health and economic outcomes of screening and treating masked hypertension in …
The study assessed the health and economic outcomes of screening and treating masked hypertension in U.S. adults using the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Policy Model, a microsimulation model. The model simulated 100,000 adults suspected of having masked hypertension (office blood pressure [BP] of 120–129/<80 mm Hg, not on antihypertensive medications, and without a history of CVD). Interventions included: usual care alone, usual care with ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), and usual care with home BP monitoring (HBPM).…
Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2019Estimation of Eating Disorders Prevalence by Age and Associations with Mortality in a Simulated Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, …
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, and estimates the association of increased treatment coverage with ED-related mortality. Using an individual-level Markov state transition model calibrated to nationally-representative US survey data from 2007 and 2011, the authors simulated a virtual cohort of 100,000 individuals (50% male) from birth to age 40 years and modelled 4 ED diagnoses: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder, and other specified…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Mental Health | Health Outcomes | Child/Nutrition | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on 5-Year Net Survival of 11 Cancers in 200 Countries
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 …
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 countries/territories for 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate). The paper estimated current 5-year net survival for diagnosed cancers in each country and potential survival gains from increasing the availability of individual treatment and imaging modalities, and more comprehensive packages of scale-up. Global 5-year net survival for all 11 cancers (combined) is…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Infectious Diseases | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on Global Breast Cancer Survival
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival …
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival for women with newly diagnosed breast cancer in 200 countries/territories in 2018, accounting for the availability and stage-specific survival impact of specific treatment modalities (chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery, and targeted therapy), imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, and single-photon emission computed tomography [SPECT]), and quality of cancer care. The model was calibrated to empirical data on 5-year net breast cancer…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global