Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2013Estimated Mortality Impact of Vaccinations 2011–2020 in 73 GAVI Alliance Countries
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted …
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011–2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
GuidelinesPublication 2013Decision and Simulation Modeling in Systematic Reviews
The purpose of this review is to provide guidance for determining when incorporating a decision-analytic …
The purpose of this review is to provide guidance for determining when incorporating a decision-analytic model alongside a systemic review would be of added value for decision making purposes. The purpose of systematic reviews is to synthesize the current scientific literature on a particular topic in the form of evidence reports and technology assessments to assist public and private organizations in developing strategies that improve the quality of health care and decision making. However, there…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Evidence Synthesis | Decision Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
GuidelinesPublication 2011HPV Vaccine Introduction in LMIC's: Guidance on the Use of Cost-Effectiveness Models
This article is a literature review of HPV vaccination models suitable for low-income and middle-income …
This article is a literature review of HPV vaccination models suitable for low-income and middle-income country use to provide information about the feasibility of using such models in a developing country setting. The authors evaluated models in terms of their capacity, requirements, limitations and comparability. Their literature review identified six HPV vaccination models suitable for low-income and middle-income country use and representative of the literature in terms of provenance and model structure. Each model was…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2011Epidemics: Modelling with Mathematics
This learning module explores mathematically modeling disease epidemics. Through video clips, Dr. Julia Gog and …
This learning module explores mathematically modeling disease epidemics. Through video clips, Dr. Julia Gog and Dr. Andrew Conlan explain simple mathematical models for how disease spreads through populations, and how these models can be built upon for more complex modelling. These models can be used to predict epidemics, and in turn, help to mitigate their risks. Related resources, such as activities, worksheets, and presentations, are available to help students investigate mathematical modelling. These activities are…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | High School | College | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership -
ArticlePublication 2010Health and Economic Impact of Rotavirus Vaccination in GAVI-Eligible Countries
Rotavirus infection is responsible for about 500,000 deaths annually, and the disease burden is disproportionately …
Rotavirus infection is responsible for about 500,000 deaths annually, and the disease burden is disproportionately borne by children in low-income countries. Motivated by the global recommendation by the WHO that all countries include infant rotavirus vaccination in their national immunization programs, the objective of this analysis was to provide information on the expected health, economic and financial consequences of rotavirus vaccines in the 72 GAVI support-eligible countries. The authors synthesized population-level data from various sources (primarily from…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2010Model Uncertainty in Economic Evaluation of Health Interventions: Rotavirus Vaccination in Vietnam
Motivated by observed discrepancies between 2 published studies on the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in …
Motivated by observed discrepancies between 2 published studies on the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Vietnam, the authors' objectives were to illustrate a specific, systematic approach to assessing model (structure and process) uncertainty and to quantify explicitly the contributions of different sources of variation in the outputs of different studies that share the same research question. On the basis of a series of working definitions of key model elements, the authors developed 5 alternative computer…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | State-Transition | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2009Cost-Effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination in Vietnam
This article reports on a cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccination, including varying degrees of severity, …
This article reports on a cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccination, including varying degrees of severity, age-dependency of clinical manifestation, and additional features of the disease (e.g., the possibility of reinfection and varying degrees of partial immunity conferred by natural infection). The authors developed a Markov model that reflects key features of rotavirus infection, using the most recent data available at the time of their analysis. They applied the model to the 2004 Vietnamese birth cohort…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific -
ReviewPublication 2008Modeling Cervical Cancer Prevention in Developed Countries
Decision-analytic models are increasingly developed to simulate disease burden and interventions in different settings in …
Decision-analytic models are increasingly developed to simulate disease burden and interventions in different settings in order to evaluate the benefits and cost-effectiveness of primary and secondary interventions. This article is a review of mathematical models that have been used to evaluate HPV vaccination in the context of developed countries with existing screening programs. Despite variations in model assumptions and uncertainty in existing data, pre-adolescent vaccination of females in the setting of current screening practices has…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2008Mathematical Models of Cervical Cancer Prevention in the Asia Pacific Region
This article reports on a model-based approach to estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, …
This article reports on a model-based approach to estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/DALY averted) for vaccination of young adolescent girls against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18. The authors used population-based and epidemiologic data for 25 countries in Asia (22 GAVI-Alliance eligible countries, Thailand, China and Japan). They found that an absolute reduction in lifetime cancer risk varied across countries, depending on incidence,…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Asia & Pacific