Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Decision Analysis | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global -
GuidelinesPublication 2012Modeling Good Research Practices - Overview: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-1
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the …
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), provides the overarching recommendations, and discusses future work that is needed. The audience for these papers includes anyone who build models, stakeholders who utilize their results, and those concerned with the use of models to support decision making. This article is part 1 of…
Decision Analysis | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Value of Information | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 1984Using Fire in Forest Management: Decision Making under Uncertainty
Prescribed fires are fires that are started under controlled conditions. This is an important strategy …
Prescribed fires are fires that are started under controlled conditions. This is an important strategy used by professionals in modern forest management. Designing, planning, and executing strategies that rely on prescribed fires is challenging because of multiple uncertainties (e.g., weather, fire behavior, etc.). In this paper, decision analysis techniques are used to evaluate prescribed fire decisions in three national forest case study applications.
Decision Analysis | Environmental Health | Climate/Environment -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Using Fire in Forest Management: Decision Making under Uncertainty
This self-directed tutorial is for a decision analytic model related to the execution and management …
This self-directed tutorial is for a decision analytic model related to the execution and management of prescribed burns within forests. This tutorial builds upon the work of the publication: Cohan D, Haas SM, Radloff DL, Yancik RF. Using Fire in Forest Management: Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Interfaces 1984; 14 (5): 8-19. Not open access. About the Alan Colowick Innovation Fund The case-based tutorials in this teaching pack were created with support from the CHDS Alan Colowick…
Decision Analysis | Environmental Health | Mathematical Models | Climate/Environment | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
ArticlePublication 2008Cost-Effectiveness of Rapid Point-of-Care Prenatal Syphilis Screening in Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of using rapid point-of-care tests for prenatal syphilis screening among …
This paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of using rapid point-of-care tests for prenatal syphilis screening among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa, a region with syphilis prevalence rates as high as 17%, and where traditional multi-test screening methods have been challenging to implement. Focusing on newly available rapid point-of-care screening tests, strategies differed by the initial test [rapid plasma reagin (RPR), immunochromographic strip (ICS)], need for confirmation with Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay, and number of visits required.…
Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Test Performance | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Decision Theory | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2020Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made …
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made antibody testing available to anyone wanting it, even if there is no clinical indication. The purpose of this article is to provide guidance for when to consider antibody testing in individuals with and without symptoms suggestive of current or past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Key points made by the authors include: (1) antibody testing is likely to be most useful 2 weeks…
Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
EditorialPublication 2020Waiting for Certainty on COVID-19 Antibody Tests — At What Cost?
This perspective anticipates the availability of serologic antibody testing and considers its potential usefulness in mitigation …
This perspective anticipates the availability of serologic antibody testing and considers its potential usefulness in mitigation policy to reduce COVID-19 transmission. For example: Could we screen for serologic antibodies as a proxy for possible immunity and identify people who could return to the workplace with less severe mitigation measures? The authors acknowledge the uncertainties raised by many policy actors, including the WHO, such as, "Do antibodies confer immunity and, if so, for how long? How accurate is…
Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | North America