How Medical Professionals Evaluate Expressions of Probability
1986
Qualitative expressions of probability, such as "likely," have different numerical meanings to different people, which can lead to misunderstanding among physicians and between physicians and patients. In a study conducted through a nationwide interactive computer network based at Massachusetts General Hospital, the authors gathered information on the meaning of common expressions of probability. Three groups of medical professionals assigned percentage values to 12 expressions of the probability that a given symptom would appear in a patient with an unspecified disease.
The median values assigned to these expressions by physicians, medical students, and other professionals were almost the same. Comparisons of the means for 7 of these 12 expressions with those found in an earlier study by other investigators showed that they were quantified in the same order, although they had not been assigned the same numerical values.
Adapted from publication abstract.
How Medical Professionals Evaluate Expressions of Probability
Source:
Kong A, Barnett GO, Mosteller F et al. How Medical Professionals Evaluate Expressions of Probability. The New England Journal of Medicine 1986; 315 (12): 740-744. https://doi.org/10.1056/nejm198609183151206
Not open access.