Resources Repository
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BookPublication 2016Foundations of Decision Analysis
This book is described by the authors as emerging from what they have learned by …
This book is described by the authors as emerging from what they have learned by "teaching decision analysis to thousands of people in the United States and around the world in university classes and special professional educational programs". The early chapters and certain later chapters are written to be accessible to a general audience. Chapters 1 through 17 introduce the foundations of decision analysis without requiring significant mathematical sophistication. Chapter 26 discusses multi-attribute decision problems…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Decision Theory | Decision Psychology | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Military/Defense | Global -
BookPublication 2013Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools, 3rd Edition
Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools® is a new edition and teaches the fundamental ideas …
Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools® is a new edition and teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in decision analysis. This new version has been purposefully written to be more relevant to students in business and engineering compared to previous versions. This new version also incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools® software by Palisade Corporation. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Preferences/Values | Test Performance | Value of Information | Microsimulation | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Military/Defense | Science/Technology | Global | North America | Europe -
BookPublication 2013Handbook of Decision Analysis
This book describes the philosophy, technical concepts, mathematics, and art of decision analysis for the …
This book describes the philosophy, technical concepts, mathematics, and art of decision analysis for the decision professional, and is designed to be supplemental reading for professional decision analysis training courses, a reference for beginning and experienced practitioners, and a supplemental text for an undergraduate or graduate course in decision analysis. The handbook includes chapters on the following topics: decision-making challenges; mathematical foundations of decision analysis; decision analysis soft skills; selecting the decision making process for…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Decision Theory | Preferences/Values | Value of Information | Economics/Finance -
ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Decision Theory | Preferences/Values | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2023Resource Pack: Diagnostic Tests, Bayes, and COVID-19
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing …
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing for COVID-19. The pack provides materials that will be particularly useful for educators who are teaching diagnostic test performance, value of information, and probability revision using Bayes’ theorem. The majority of papers focus on PCR or rapid antigen testing on samples obtained from the respiratory tract by nasopharyngeal swab. The mechanism of false negative results (e.g., timing of sample collection…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Test Performance | Value of Information | Science/Technology | Global | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Building Decision Trees
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a …
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a disease screening example. It details the process of how to build the structure of a decision tree, parameterize the model with probabilities and relevant outcomes (i.e., life expectancy), evaluate three alternative screening strategies in a baseline scenario, and perform one-way sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the results to different parameter values. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
ExerciseNone, Teaching Resource 2024Lab: Giant Cell Arteritis Decision Tree Model
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model focused on Giant Cell …
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model focused on Giant Cell Arteritis. It describes how to build the model structure, assign probabilities and outcomes based on imperfect test characteristics and epidemiologic estimates, evaluate alternative treatment strategies, and conduct one-way sensitivity analyses to assess which model parameters may impact the optimal treatment choice. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is an open source modeling framework and probabilistic programming language for decision analysis…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Resource Pack: Introduction to Benefit-Cost Analysis
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, introduces the theory and …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, introduces the theory and practice of benefit-cost analysis. It is targeted towards advanced students as well as practitioners and those interested in teaching benefit-cost analysis. Benefit-cost analysis (also referred to as cost-benefit analysis) is a well-established and widely-used form of economic evaluation. It is designed to inform policy and other decisions by providing evidence on the consequences of alternative interventions. In benefit-cost analysis, all…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Climate/Environment | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Global | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2023Resource Pack: Books on Decision Making and Thinking
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features books about how …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features books about how we think, learn, and decide. We aim to provide an introduction to some of the core concepts in decision theory and psychology with this collection, and hope that it will stimulate further inquiry. These books are geared to a general audience; the majority are very accessible reads. The collection is broadly divided into three categories. The first is made up of…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Climate/Environment | Decision Theory | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Business/Industry | Culture/Society | Economics/Finance | Science/Technology | Global | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Policy Translation