Resources Repository
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ReviewPublication 2015Agent-Based Models and Microsimulation
This article reviews the principles and applications of agent-based models (ABMs). ABMs are computational models …
This article reviews the principles and applications of agent-based models (ABMs). ABMs are computational models used to simulate the actions and interactions of “agents” within a system. Usually, each agent has a set of rules for how he or she responds to the environment and to other agents. These models are used to gain insight into the emergent behavior of complex systems with many agents, in which the emergent behavior depends upon the micro-level behavior…
State-Transition | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2015Population Health Model (POHEM): An Overview
This paper provides an overview of the rationale, methodology and applications of the Population Health …
This paper provides an overview of the rationale, methodology and applications of the Population Health Model (POHEM). POHEM is a health microsimulation model, developed at Statistics Canada in the early 1990s. The authors describe that POHEM draws together rich multivariate data from a wide range of sources to simulate the lifecycle of the Canadian population, specifically focusing on aspects of health. The model dynamically simulates individuals’ disease states, risk factors, and health determinants, in order…
Calibration/Validation | Costing Methods | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | North America -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2015Calibration of Complex Models through Bayesian Evidence Synthesis: A Tutorial
This tutorial demonstrates how to implement a Bayesian synthesis of diverse sources of evidence to …
This tutorial demonstrates how to implement a Bayesian synthesis of diverse sources of evidence to calibrate the parameters of a complex model. To illustrate these methods, the authors demonstrate how a previously developed Markov model for the progression of human papillomavirus (HPV-16) infection was rebuilt in a Bayesian framework. Transition probabilities between states of disease severity are inferred indirectly from cross-sectional observations of prevalence of HPV-16 and HPV-16–related disease by age, cervical cancer incidence, and…
Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases -
ReportPublication 2015Modeling to Improve Policy Decisions in the Americas: Noncommunicable Diseases
In the Region of the Americas, noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a clear threat not only …
In the Region of the Americas, noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a clear threat not only to human health, but also to a country’s economic development and growth. The evidence on both of these counts is compelling. In 2012, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancers, chronic respiratory conditions including asthma, and other NCDs were the cause of 4.5 million deaths in the Americas. Of that total number, 1.5 million of them were premature, occurring among people aged 30-69…
State-Transition | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mental Health | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2014Cost-Effectiveness of Female HPV Vaccination in 179 Countries: A PRIME Modelling Study
The authors present a simple generic model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME), …
The authors present a simple generic model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME), used to assess cost-effectiveness and health effects of vaccination of girls against HPV before sexual debut in terms of burden of cervical cancer and mortality. The PRIME models incidence according to proposed vaccine efficacy against HPV 16/18, vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, and HPV type distribution. It assumes lifelong vaccine protection and no changes to other screening programs…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2014Cost-Effectiveness of Second-Generation Antipsychotics for the Treatment of Schizophrenia
This article, published in Value in Health, describes a Markov model that compares the cost-effectiveness …
This article, published in Value in Health, describes a Markov model that compares the cost-effectiveness of alternate sequences of treatment strategies using second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) for patients with schizophrenia. First-line treatments include one of the four SGAs: olanzapine (OLZ), risperidone (RSP), quetiapine (QTP), and ziprasidone (ZSD). Patients are able switch to another of these antipsychotics as second-line therapy, and only clozapine (CLZ) is allowed as third-line treatment. Model input parameters were obtained from the Clinical…
State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Mental Health | Health/Medicine | North America -
ReviewPublication 2014Markov Modeling & Discrete Event Simulation in Health Care: Systematic Comparison
This review assesses whether the use of Markov modeling (MM) or discrete event simulation (DES) …
This review assesses whether the use of Markov modeling (MM) or discrete event simulation (DES) for cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) may alter healthcare resource allocation decisions. A systematic literature search and review of empirical and non-empirical studies comparing MM and DES techniques used in the CEA of healthcare technologies was conducted. The primary advantages described for DES over MM were the ability to model queuing for limited resources, capture individual patient histories, accommodate complexity and uncertainty,…
State-Transition | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2013Validation and Calibration of a Simulation Model of Pediatric HIV Infection
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of …
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model framework. This CEPAC-Pediatric model was then validated by varying CD4 data and comparing the corresponding model-generated survival curves to empirical survival curves obtained from the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). The model was calibrated to other African countries by systematically varying immunologic and HIV mortality-related input parameters. In the calibration analyses, the model-generated…
Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2013Estimated Mortality Impact of Vaccinations 2011–2020 in 73 GAVI Alliance Countries
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted …
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011–2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese…
State-Transition | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific