Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Decision Theory | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2007Economic Evaluation of Hepatitis B Vaccination in Low-Income Countries: Cost-Effectiveness Affordability Curves
In the face of uncertainties about both the health and economic consequences of a vaccine …
In the face of uncertainties about both the health and economic consequences of a vaccine program, as well as the availability and magnitude of resources needed to fund the program, cost-effectiveness affordability curves can provide information to decision-makers about the probability that a program will be both cost-effective and affordable: these are distinct but equally relevant considerations in resource-poor settings. This paper describes the application of this method to assess a hepatitis B vaccination program in the…
Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2007Multiparameter Calibration of a Natural History Model of Cervical Cancer
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model …
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer. Using primary epidemiologic data from a longitudinal study of women in Brazil, a plausible range for each input parameter was identified that would produce model output within the 95% confidence intervals of the data. The authors then performed a simultaneous search over all input parameters to identify parameter sets that produced output consistent…
Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
BookPublication 2007Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications
Decision analysis consists of a prescriptive theory and associated models and tools that aid individuals …
Decision analysis consists of a prescriptive theory and associated models and tools that aid individuals or groups confronted with complex decision problems in a wide variety of contexts. Decision analysis can be applied to the environment, health and medicine, engineering, public policy, and business. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts on decision analysis. It covers the broad scope of decision analysis at an advanced level and includes chapters written by…
Decision Theory | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Value of Information | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2007Cost Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Maternal Mortality in Mexico
This article, published in PloS One, uses maternal mortality data from Mexico to examine trends …
This article, published in PloS One, uses maternal mortality data from Mexico to examine trends in the provision of maternal health services and the trajectory towards reaching the Millennium Development Goal 5 (MDG 5). The authors developed a model of the natural history of pregnancy and pregnancy related complications and simulated a cohort of 15-year-old women over their lifetime based on national data. The model produced clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of the current standard…
Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
GuidelinesPublication 2007Preference Measurement in Economic Analysis
This guide includes an overview of the concepts of preference measurement and quality-adjusted life years, …
This guide includes an overview of the concepts of preference measurement and quality-adjusted life years, a description of the most common techniques used for measuring preferences in economic evaluation, a summary of experience measuring preferences in the VA Cooperative Studies Program.
Preferences/Values | Health Outcomes | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2007Mortality-Risk Valuation and Age
This article addresses whether a single value of statistical life (VSL) should be applied to …
This article addresses whether a single value of statistical life (VSL) should be applied to all age groups or whether lower values should be used for the elderly, recognizing that their life expectancies are shorter than those of younger people. Surveys of different age groups' willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality-risk reductions can potentially help resolve this issue. The 36 studies reviewed suggest that the literature is split on whether older people have a lower WTP…
Preferences/Values | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | College | Graduate | Critical Thinking/Analysis -
ArticlePublication 2006Can Discrete Event Simulation be of Use in Modeling Major Depression?
This article, published in Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation, reviews the published literature on Markov …
This article, published in Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation, reviews the published literature on Markov models in depression and identified potential limitations in using this particular modelling approach in this disease area. Additionally, the authors develop a “Discrete Event Simulation” (DES) model to investigate the benefits and drawbacks of this simulation method compared with Markov modelling techniques. The findings of this study indicate that the most important limitation of using Markov models in depression is…
State-Transition | Microsimulation | Decision Analysis | Mental Health | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2006Ethical Issues in Resource Allocation, Research, and New Product Development
Ethical dilemmas arising in setting priorities among interventions and among individuals in need of care …
Ethical dilemmas arising in setting priorities among interventions and among individuals in need of care are most acute when needs are great and resources few. This chapter from the Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries 2nd edition addresses some of these concerns, identifying some of the principal ethical issues that arise in the development and allocation of effective interventions for developing countries and discussing some alternative resolutions. Resource allocation in health and elsewhere should satisfy two main…
Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Culture/Society | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology