- decision theory
- value of information
- models and tools
- mathematical models
- state-transition
- dynamic transmission
- microsimulation
- calibration/validation
- dynamic simulation
- decision analysis
- benefit-cost analysis
- cost-effectiveness analysis
- culture/society
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Resources Repository
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Lesson/ModulePublication, Teaching Resource 2014CDC Science Ambassador Workshop 2014 Lesson Plan: Master of Disaster
This lesson plan from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was curated to …
This lesson plan from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was curated to teach high school students, grades 9-10, to explore decision-making around natural disaster emergencies. The lesson includes a video, public health emergency response data, and a response plan. It explores interactive cases of cholera in Haiti after an earthquake and breaks down risk factors and different approaches to the scenario. Students make informed decisions based on this data, exploring public health…
Decision Analysis | Culture/Society | Science/Technology | North America | Injuries/Accidents | Environmental Health | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean | High School | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2013Contribution of H. Pylori and Smoking to US Incidence of Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A Microsimulation Model
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading …
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. This analysis estimates the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type non-cardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. The authors developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to U.S. epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Culture/Society | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2009Cost-Effectiveness of HPV Vaccination and Cervical Cancer Screening in Women Aged 30+ Years in the U.S.
The objective of the study was to assess the health and economic outcomes of HPV …
The objective of the study was to assess the health and economic outcomes of HPV vaccination in older U.S. women. The authors conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis with an empirically calibrated model using data from published literature; interventions included HPV vaccination added to screening strategies that differ by test (cytology or HPV DNA testing), frequency, and start age versus screening alone.They found that in the context of annual or biennial screening, HPV vaccination of women aged…
Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Science/Technology | North America | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2007Modeling HPV and Cervical Cancer in the U.S. for Analyses of Screening and Vaccination
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty …
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty about the natural history of disease that was used to provide quantitative insight into U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention. The authors developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Science/Technology | North America | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2001Modeling for Health Care and Other Policy Decisions: Uses, Roles and Validity
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making …
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making in health care and other domains. The role of models to support recommendations on the cost-effective use of medical technologies and pharmaceuticals is controversial. At the heart of the controversy is the degree to which experimental or other empirical evidence should be required prior to model use. The authors argue that the controversy stems in part from a misconception that…
Mathematical Models | Government/Law | North America | Priority Setting/Ethics | Evidence Synthesis | Technology Assessment | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2024Adopting Electric School Buses in the U.S.: Health & Climate Benefits
This article evaluates the health and climate benefits of replacing diesel school buses with electric …
This article evaluates the health and climate benefits of replacing diesel school buses with electric models in the U.S. Despite the high cost of electric buses, their benefits in reducing mortality and childhood asthma, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, could justify the investment. The study quantifies the benefits of replacing an average diesel bus with an electric bus, estimating $84,200 in total benefits per bus, with $40,400 from climate benefits and $43,800 from health…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Government/Law | North America | Environmental Health | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2023Performance of Rapid Antigen Tests to Detect Symptomatic and Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection
The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of rapid antigen tests (Ag-RDTs) …
The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of rapid antigen tests (Ag-RDTs) for detection of SARS-CoV-2 among symptomatic and asymptomatic participants. The general findings were that the performance of Ag-RDTs was optimized when asymptomatic participants tested 3 times at 48-hour intervals and when symptomatic participants tested 2 times separated by 48 hours. Participants completed Ag-RDTs and reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 every 48 hours for 15 days. They…
Science/Technology | North America | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2020Variation in False-Negative Rate of Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction-Based SARS-CoV-2 Tests by Time Since Exposure
This study aimed to determine the false-negative rate of RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection based …
This study aimed to determine the false-negative rate of RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection based on the timeline of exposure and symptom onset. Drawing from data in seven studies involving 1,330 upper respiratory tract samples, a Bayesian model was used to estimate these rates. Findings showed that in the initial four days prior to typical symptom onset, the false-negative rate decreased from 100% on day 1 to 67% on day 4. By the day of…
Science/Technology | North America | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2021Considerations for Diagnostic COVID-19 Tests
During the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a rush by numerous diagnostic …
During the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a rush by numerous diagnostic test manufacturers to create, validate, and implement testing methods. This review discusses the pivotal role of diagnostic tests during the pandemic's first global wave, highlighting the challenges in technology and implementation experienced early on. The study also offers insights for enhancing the use of diagnostics, especially syndromic ones, should there be future spikes or regional outbreaks of COVID-19. The overarching…
Science/Technology | North America | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine