Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ReviewPublication 2017Validation and Calibration of Structural Models that Combine Information from Multiple Sources
This is a review of calibration and validation methods in mathematical modeling. Such models that …
This is a review of calibration and validation methods in mathematical modeling. Such models that attempt to capture structural relationships between their components and combine information from multiple sources are increasingly used in medicine. The authors provide an overview of methods for model validation and calibration and survey studies comparing alternative approaches. Model validation entails a confrontation of models with data, background knowledge, and other models, and can inform judgments about model credibility. Calibration involves…
Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
OrganizationWeb Portal 2024Society for Risk Analysis
The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) is a multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, scholarly, international society that provides …
The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) is a multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, scholarly, international society that provides an open forum for all those who are interested in risk analysis. Risk analysis is broadly defined to include risk assessment, characterization, communication, management, and policy. It covers risks of concern to individuals, to public- and private-sector organizations, and to society at a local, regional, national, or global level. The Society includes numerous regional organizations around the world as well as several…
Risk Analysis | Injuries/Accidents | Environmental Health | Global Governance | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Food/Agriculture | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Science/Technology | Global -
Resource PortalWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2024National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, founded in 1863, has a mission to provide …
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, founded in 1863, has a mission to provide nonpartisan, objective guidance for decision makers on policy challenges in the context of science, engineering, and medicine. NAS reports and convening activities have a wide range of impacts on policy and practice. They guide the development of federal laws and regulations, improve the effectiveness of government programs, shape the direction of research fields, and inform public knowledge and dialogue about…
Risk Analysis | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Injuries/Accidents | Social Determinants | Health Systems | Global Governance | Climate/Environment | Energy/Engineering | Education/Labor | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Science/Technology | Global | North America | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Policy Translation -
ArticlePublication 2016Cost-Effectiveness of Intensive Blood Pressure Management
This article aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of intensive blood pressure management compared with standard …
This article aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of intensive blood pressure management compared with standard management among 68-year-old high-risk adults with hypertension but not diabetes. A Markov cohort model was developed to estimate lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) discounted at 3% annually. The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) was used to estimate treatment effects and adverse event rates. The authors used Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Life Tables to project age- and…
State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2016Scientific Evidence of Factual Causation
This module examines three scientific areas that provide evidence bearing on causation in the “toxic …
This module examines three scientific areas that provide evidence bearing on causation in the “toxic tort” or environmental disease context: epidemiology, toxicology, and genetics. These scientific disciplines are used in civil lawsuits and in regulatory proceedings in which causation or risk is an issue. The module is appropriate for non-scientist law students as well as others interested in learning the science of toxic tort causation, including practicing attorneys, judges, and public policy and public health…
Risk Analysis | Evidence Synthesis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Environmental Health | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | Food/Agriculture | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2016Cost-Effectiveness of Collaborative Care for Depression and Comorbid Diabetes or CVD
This article, published in BMJ Open, presents an economic model that combines a decision tree …
This article, published in BMJ Open, presents an economic model that combines a decision tree and a Markov cohort model to investigate the long-term cost-effectiveness of collaborative care versus usual care for individuals with depression and comorbid diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease. Data from the COINCIDE trial informs the model input parameters. The COINCIDE trial is a randomized controlled trial of collaborative care versus usual care that enrolled 387 participants from 36 primary care general practices…
State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mental Health | Health/Medicine | Europe -
ReportPublication 2016Modeling to Inform Strategies to Improve Population Health
This workshop report summarizes a workshop convened by the Institute of Medicine to explore the potential …
This workshop report summarizes a workshop convened by the Institute of Medicine to explore the potential uses of simulation and other types of modeling for improving health. Participants worked to identify how modeling could inform population health decision making (selecting and refining potential strategies, ranging from interventions to investments) based on lessons learned from models that have been, or have not been, used successfully, opportunities and barriers to incorporating models into decision making, and data needs and…
State-Transition | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Decision Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America