Resources Repository
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ToolInteractive 2020COVID-19 Antibody Tests: Calculator for Interpreting Test Results
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. This interactive calculator, linked to the article …
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. This interactive calculator, linked to the article below* on antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2 virus, allows users to vary the prior probability of infection, the sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing, and the specificity of SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing. Key points made in the article accompanying the interactive include: (1) antibody testing is likely to be most useful 2 weeks after infection, (2) sensitivity and specificity will vary over time and…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2021Resource Pack: Role of Heuristics in Avalanche Education
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals …
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals need to understand and be comfortable with the language of probability, as well as appreciate the cognitive biases that can come into play in the context of decision making. This collection includes articles that range from early attempts to identify “heuristic traps,” based on a retrospective analysis of avalanche accidents in the United States more than 20 years ago, to…
Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Injuries/Accidents | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership -
ArticlePublication 2021Health Opportunity Cost Threshold for CEA in the U.S.
Using a modeled cohort of 100,000 individuals in the United States with private health insurance, …
Using a modeled cohort of 100,000 individuals in the United States with private health insurance, the authors simulated the short-term mortality and morbidity resulting from increased premium related cancelation of insurance coverage. The authors used this model to estimate cost-effectiveness thresholds, in dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained based on health opportunity costs. They reported the number of persons who dropped insurance coverage, resulting number of additional deaths and QALYs lost from mortality and…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | North America -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Resource Pack: Ethiopian Health Decision Sciences
This resource pack provides a curated set of peer-reviewed articles that represent the growing evidence …
This resource pack provides a curated set of peer-reviewed articles that represent the growing evidence base for decision making and priority setting in Ethiopia - with an emphasis on improving health, reducing inequity, and preventing health-related impoverishment. Curated by Dr. Stéphane Verguet at the Center for Health Decision Science, most of the papers reflect work done as part of the Disease Control Priorities-Ethiopia (DCP-E) project. The pack provides scholarship that spans maternal-child health, vaccine-preventable disease, infectious…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Policy Translation -
EditorialPublication 2020Waiting for Certainty on COVID-19 Antibody Tests — At What Cost?
This perspective anticipates the availability of serologic antibody testing and considers its potential usefulness in mitigation …
This perspective anticipates the availability of serologic antibody testing and considers its potential usefulness in mitigation policy to reduce COVID-19 transmission. For example: Could we screen for serologic antibodies as a proxy for possible immunity and identify people who could return to the workplace with less severe mitigation measures? The authors acknowledge the uncertainties raised by many policy actors, including the WHO, such as, "Do antibodies confer immunity and, if so, for how long? How accurate is…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Burden of Household OOP Health Expenditures
This article, published in Health Policy and Planning, estimates the incidence of catastrophic and impoverishing …
This article, published in Health Policy and Planning, estimates the incidence of catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures using data from the 2015/16 Ethiopian household consumption and expenditure and welfare monitoring surveys. The authors compute the incidence of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) at 10% and 25% thresholds of total household consumption and 40% threshold of household capacity to pay. Impoverishing health expenditures (IHE) are calculated using Ethiopia's national poverty line (ETB 7184 per adult per year).…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2020Economic Evaluation of HBV Birth Dose Vaccination
This article, published in Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation, examines the cost-effectiveness of a birth …
This article, published in Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation, examines the cost-effectiveness of a birth dose of HBV vaccine in a medical setting in Ethiopia. The authors construct a decision analytic model with a Markov process to estimate the costs and effects of a birth dose of HBV vaccine, compared with current practices in Ethiopia. Based on the cost-effectiveness findings, introducing a birth dose of HBV vaccine in Ethiopia would likely be highly cost-effective. Such…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2020New Fronts in the War on Misinformation
The countless false claims that have spread alongside the novel coronavirus – inaccurate advice about …
The countless false claims that have spread alongside the novel coronavirus – inaccurate advice about how to prevent the virus, for example, and conspiracy theories about its origins – are just the latest manifestation of an ongoing problem: the online proliferation of misinformation about science and health. The National Academies hosted and helped organize three events focused on countering misinformation: The MisinfoCon conference, a Wikipedia Edit-a-thon, and a meeting to explore ways to expand successful…
Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Education/Labor | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Bayes' Theorem, COVID-19, and Screening Tests
This article reviews the implications of increased testing for COVID-19 using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain …
This article reviews the implications of increased testing for COVID-19 using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) through the application of Bayes’ Theorem for three hypothetical, stylized case scenarios. The scenarios involve three patients with a low, moderate, and high pre-test probability of COVID-19 infection. The category of low probability would include "asymptomatic individuals in a presumed low prevalence environment" and might vary from 10 to 20%. The category of moderate probability would include "individuals…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine