Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on Global Breast Cancer Survival
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival …
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival for women with newly diagnosed breast cancer in 200 countries/territories in 2018, accounting for the availability and stage-specific survival impact of specific treatment modalities (chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery, and targeted therapy), imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, and single-photon emission computed tomography [SPECT]), and quality of cancer care. The model was calibrated to empirical data on 5-year net breast cancer…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made …
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made antibody testing available to anyone wanting it, even if there is no clinical indication. The purpose of this article is to provide guidance for when to consider antibody testing in individuals with and without symptoms suggestive of current or past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Key points made by the authors include: (1) antibody testing is likely to be most useful 2 weeks…
Technology Assessment | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2020Expanding Oral Disease Treatment is Cost Effective
This study developed a stochastic microsimulation model of oral health conditions, type-2 diabetes (T2D), T2D-related …
This study developed a stochastic microsimulation model of oral health conditions, type-2 diabetes (T2D), T2D-related microvascular diseases, and CVD, to project the cost-effectiveness of expanding periodontal treatment coverage among patients with T2D and periodontitis. Previous randomized trials found that treating periodontitis improved glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), thus lowering the risks of developing T2D-related microvascular diseases and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The micro-simulation model parameters were obtained from the nationally representative National…
Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America | Graduate -
ArticlePublication 2017Costs of Facility-Based HIV Testing in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe
Providing HIV testing at health facilities remains the most common approach to ensuring access to …
Providing HIV testing at health facilities remains the most common approach to ensuring access to HIV treatment and prevention services for the millions of undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals in sub-Saharan Africa. The authors sought to explore the costs of providing these services across three southern African countries with high HIV burden.Primary costing studies were undertaken in 54 health facilities providing HIV testing services (HTS) in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Routinely collected monitoring and evaluation data for…
Technology Assessment | Costing Methods | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016An Economic Evaluation of the PEN Program in Indonesia
Responding to the economic and health burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), the World Health Organization (WHO) …
Responding to the economic and health burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), the World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the Package of Essential Noncommunicable disease (PEN) interventions. Several countries, including Indonesia, implemented the PEN program. To assess the value of the investment in the current program, an economic evaluation of the program was conducted with collaboration between the Ministry of Health in Indonesia, the WHO, and the International Decision Support Initiative (iDSI). This study evaluated the delivery of…
Technology Assessment | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2015Cancer Models and Real-World Data: Better Together
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of …
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of the long-term consequences of care. While models have been influential in informing US cancer screening guidelines under ideal conditions, incorporating detailed data on real-world screening practice has been limited given the complexity of screening processes and behaviors throughout diverse health delivery systems in the United States. The authors describe the synergies that exist between decision-analytic models and health care utilization…
Calibration/Validation | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America