Resources Repository
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BookPublication 2013Handbook of Decision Analysis
This book describes the philosophy, technical concepts, mathematics, and art of decision analysis for the …
This book describes the philosophy, technical concepts, mathematics, and art of decision analysis for the decision professional, and is designed to be supplemental reading for professional decision analysis training courses, a reference for beginning and experienced practitioners, and a supplemental text for an undergraduate or graduate course in decision analysis. The handbook includes chapters on the following topics: decision-making challenges; mathematical foundations of decision analysis; decision analysis soft skills; selecting the decision making process for…
Preferences/Values | Decision Theory | Probability/Bayes | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2013Valuing the Economic Benefits of Complex Interventions
This is a review of economic evaluations of complex health interventions. Complex interventions, involving interlinked …
This is a review of economic evaluations of complex health interventions. Complex interventions, involving interlinked packages of care, challenge the application of current methods of economic evaluation that focus on measuring only health gain. The authors find that complex interventions may be problematic on two levels. First, the complexity means the intervention may not fit into one of the current appraisal systems, and/or second, maximizing health is not the only objective. This paper discusses the…
Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Europe -
GuidelinesPublication 2012Model Transparency and Validation: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-7
This paper discusses how to improve trust in the use of health care models through …
This paper discusses how to improve trust in the use of health care models through validation and transparency. Validation involves face validity (wherein experts evaluate model structure, data sources, assumptions, and results), verification or internal validity (check accuracy of coding), cross validity (comparison of results with other models analyzing same problem), external validity (comparing model results to real-world results), and predictive validity (comparing model results with prospectively observed events). Recommendations are provided for nontechnical description…
Calibration/Validation | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine -
GuidelinesPublication 2012Modeling Using Discrete Event Simulation: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-4
This paper reports on consensus-based guidelines on the application of DES in a health care …
This paper reports on consensus-based guidelines on the application of DES in a health care setting, covering the range of issues to which DES can be applied. Discrete event simulation (DES) is a form of computer-based modeling that provides an intuitive and flexible approach to representing complex systems. The article works through the different stages of the modeling process: structural development, parameter estimation, model implementation, model analysis, and representation and reporting. Recommendations are made for…
Calibration/Validation | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine -
GuidelinesPublication 2012Modeling Good Research Practices - Overview: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-1
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the …
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), provides the overarching recommendations, and discusses future work that is needed. The audience for these papers includes anyone who build models, stakeholders who utilize their results, and those concerned with the use of models to support decision making. This article is part 1 of…
Calibration/Validation | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Value of Information | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
GuidelinesPublication 2012Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-6
This paper discusses methods for the reporting of uncertainty, both in terms of deterministic sensitivity …
This paper discusses methods for the reporting of uncertainty, both in terms of deterministic sensitivity analysis techniques and probabilistic methods. Stochastic (first-order) uncertainty is distinguished from both parameter (second-order) uncertainty and from heterogeneity, with structural uncertainty relating to the model itself forming another level of uncertainty. The article describes the process of estimating model inputs, whether these are point estimates or distributions. It also explores the link between parameter uncertainty, decision uncertainty, and value-of-information analysis.…
Calibration/Validation | Value of Information | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2012Expert Elicitation of VSL
This article uses expert elicitation to address the monetary value of avoided premature mortality, which …
This article uses expert elicitation to address the monetary value of avoided premature mortality, which typically dominates the quantified benefits of air pollution regulations. Formal expert elicitation methods are one means of characterizing associated uncertainties. The authors undertake a pilot study that elicits quantitative probabilistic judgments of uncertainties in value per statistical life (VSL) estimates for use in an air pollution context. The two-stage elicitation addresses uncertainties in both a base case VSL for a…
Preferences/Values | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | College | Graduate | Critical Thinking/Analysis -
ReportPublication 2012Mortality Risks in Environment, Health and Transport
This report presents a major meta-analysis of value of a statistical life (VSL) estimates derived …
This report presents a major meta-analysis of value of a statistical life (VSL) estimates derived from surveys around the world. The analysis seeks to explain the differences in the estimates, for example across countries. Differences in incomes and the magnitude of the risk reduction were found to be the factors having the strongest impact, but numerous other policy-relevant factors are also important. The report also presents advice on how VSL estimates can be best used…
Preferences/Values | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | College | Graduate | Critical Thinking/Analysis -
BookPublication 2012Elgar Companion to Health Economics, 2nd Edition
This collection brings together more than 50 contributions from some of the most influential researchers in …
This collection brings together more than 50 contributions from some of the most influential researchers in health economics. It covers theoretical and empirical issues in health economics, with a range of material on equity and efficiency in health care systems, health technology assessment and issues of concern for developing countries. This revised second edition is expanded to include four new chapters, while all existing chapters have been extensively updated. The Elgar Companion to Health Economics, Second Edition…
Preferences/Values | Decision Theory | Probability/Bayes | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Value of Information | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global