Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Economics/Finance | Decision Theory | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Energy/Engineering -
ArticlePublication 2007Economic Evaluation of Hepatitis B Vaccination in Low-Income Countries: Cost-Effectiveness Affordability Curves
In the face of uncertainties about both the health and economic consequences of a vaccine …
In the face of uncertainties about both the health and economic consequences of a vaccine program, as well as the availability and magnitude of resources needed to fund the program, cost-effectiveness affordability curves can provide information to decision-makers about the probability that a program will be both cost-effective and affordable: these are distinct but equally relevant considerations in resource-poor settings. This paper describes the application of this method to assess a hepatitis B vaccination program in the…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Economics/Finance | Costing Methods | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2007Multiparameter Calibration of a Natural History Model of Cervical Cancer
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model …
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer. Using primary epidemiologic data from a longitudinal study of women in Brazil, a plausible range for each input parameter was identified that would produce model output within the 95% confidence intervals of the data. The authors then performed a simultaneous search over all input parameters to identify parameter sets that produced output consistent…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2002Empirically Calibrated Model of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in the United States
This article presents an epidemiologic model of hepatitis C in the United States. The authors …
This article presents an epidemiologic model of hepatitis C in the United States. The authors used empirical calibration of model parameters to gain insights into uncertainty in the natural history of hepatitis C and to improve future projections. The authors identified model inputs by way of a systematic review. Model simulations were conducted and model predictions were compared with epidemiologic data on infection prevalence and mortality from liver cancer. Goodness-of-fit criteria were used to identify…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | State-Transition | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
ArticlePublication 2000Discipline of Cost-Benefit Analysis
Cost-benefit analysis is a general discipline, based on the use of some foundational principles, which …
Cost-benefit analysis is a general discipline, based on the use of some foundational principles, which are not altogether controversial, but have nevertheless considered plausibility. Divisiveness increases as various additional requirements are imposed. There is a trade-off here between easier usability (through locked-up formulae) and more general acceptability (through allowing parametric variations). The paper, by Amartya Sen, examines and scrutinizes the merits and demerits of these additional requirements. The particular variant of cost-benefit approach that is…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Government/Law | Economics/Finance | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Culture/Society -
ArticlePublication 2024Extended Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Interventions to Improve Uptake of Diabetes Services in South Africa
This study examines the potential impact of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program on diabetes …
This study examines the potential impact of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program on diabetes diagnosis and treatment service utilization in South Africa (SA) using extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA). Applying a Markov model over a 45-year period, the analysis compares costs, health benefits, and financial risk protection (FRP) attributes of different CCT strategies, drawing from SA-specific data. Three scenarios were simulated: covering diagnosis services only, treatment services only, and both diagnosis and treatment services. Cost-effectiveness,…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Policy/Regulation | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2023Cost-Effectiveness of Pharmacist Prescribing for Managing Hypertension
This study estimates the cost-effectiveness of implementing a pharmacist-prescribing intervention to improve blood pressure control …
This study estimates the cost-effectiveness of implementing a pharmacist-prescribing intervention to improve blood pressure control in the US. A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a Markov model based on the pharmacist-prescribing intervention used in The Alberta Clinical Trial in Optimizing Hypertension (or RxACTION). Outcomes included cardiovascular (CV) events, end-stage kidney disease events, life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Costs were based on reimbursement rates, published literature, national…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | North America -
ArticlePublication 2013Modeling the Effectiveness of Initial Management Strategies for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ
This paper compares alternative strategies to manage ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The authors used …
This paper compares alternative strategies to manage ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The authors used a disease simulation model to simulate the clinical events after six treatments (lumpectomy alone, lumpectomy with radiation, lumpectomy with radiation and tamoxifen, lumpectomy with tamoxifen, and mastectomy with and without breast reconstruction). Outcomes included disease-free, invasive disease-free, overall survival and breast preservation. Data were from the published literature. The results showed that for women aged 45 years at diagnosis, both mastectomy…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Health Outcomes | Clinical Care -
ArticlePublication 1984Using Fire in Forest Management: Decision Making under Uncertainty
Prescribed fires are fires that are started under controlled conditions. This is an important strategy …
Prescribed fires are fires that are started under controlled conditions. This is an important strategy used by professionals in modern forest management. Designing, planning, and executing strategies that rely on prescribed fires is challenging because of multiple uncertainties (e.g., weather, fire behavior, etc.). In this paper, decision analysis techniques are used to evaluate prescribed fire decisions in three national forest case study applications.
Decision Analysis | Climate/Environment | Environmental Health