Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination With a Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine: Model Comparison
Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, …
Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 months following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. This paper reports predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine…
Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Global Governance | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection
Given the importance of controlling latent TB infection (LTBI) as part of the End TB …
Given the importance of controlling latent TB infection (LTBI) as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, the authors felt that changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, made it necessary to re-assess the global burden of LTBI. The authors used constructed trends in annual risk in infection to calculate the number and proportions of individuals infected, recently infected, and recently infected with isoniazid (INH)-resistant strains, aggregated…
Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2015Cancer Models and Real-World Data: Better Together
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of …
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of the long-term consequences of care. While models have been influential in informing US cancer screening guidelines under ideal conditions, incorporating detailed data on real-world screening practice has been limited given the complexity of screening processes and behaviors throughout diverse health delivery systems in the United States. The authors describe the synergies that exist between decision-analytic models and health care utilization…
Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2015A Conceptual Model for Breast, Cervical, and Colorectal Cancer Screening
General frameworks of the cancer screening process are available, but none directly compare the process …
General frameworks of the cancer screening process are available, but none directly compare the process in detail across different organ sites. This limits the ability of medical and public health professionals to develop and evaluate coordinated screening programs that apply resources and population management strategies available for one cancer site to other sites. This paper presents a conceptual model that incorporates a single screening episode for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers into a unified framework based…
Evidence Synthesis | Microsimulation | Preferences/Values | Health Outcomes | Test Performance | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2014Indemics: Interactive Computing Framework for Data Intensive Epidemic Modeling
The design and prototype implementation of Indemics (Interactive EpidemicSimulation) is described, a modeling environment utilizing …
The design and prototype implementation of Indemics (Interactive EpidemicSimulation) is described, a modeling environment utilizing high-performance computing technologies for supporting complex epidemic simulations. Indemics can support policy analysts and epidemiologists interested in planning and control of pandemics. Indemics goes beyond traditional epidemic simulations by providing a way to represent and analyze policy-based as well as individual-based adaptive interventions. Users can also stop the simulation at any point, assess the state of the simulated system, and…
Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2012Modeling the Risks and Benefits of Depression Treatment for Children and Young Adults
This article, published in Value in Health, presents a discrete event simulation model to quantify …
This article, published in Value in Health, presents a discrete event simulation model to quantify the trade-offs with respect to clinical benefits and the risk of fatal and non-fatal suicidal behavior of alternative treatment strategies for a U.S. pediatric population with major depressive disorder. The authors evaluate treatment strategies including: selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), and a combination of both. The results show that the use of SSRIs is associated with…
Microsimulation | Technology Assessment | Health Outcomes | Mental Health | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2010Health and Economic Impact of Rotavirus Vaccination in GAVI-Eligible Countries
Rotavirus infection is responsible for about 500,000 deaths annually, and the disease burden is disproportionately …
Rotavirus infection is responsible for about 500,000 deaths annually, and the disease burden is disproportionately borne by children in low-income countries. Motivated by the global recommendation by the WHO that all countries include infant rotavirus vaccination in their national immunization programs, the objective of this analysis was to provide information on the expected health, economic and financial consequences of rotavirus vaccines in the 72 GAVI support-eligible countries. The authors synthesized population-level data from various sources (primarily from…
Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific