Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection
2016
Given the importance of controlling latent TB infection (LTBI) as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, the authors felt that changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, made it necessary to re-assess the global burden of LTBI. The authors used constructed trends in annual risk in infection to calculate the number and proportions of individuals infected, recently infected, and recently infected with isoniazid (INH)-resistant strains, aggregated by WHO region. Using those figures, they estimated the contribution of existing infections to TB incidence in 2035 and 2050. Current LTBI alone, assuming no additional infections from 2015 onwards, would be expected to generate TB incidences in the region of 16.5 per 100,000 per year in 2035 and 8.3 per 100,000 per year in 2050. The authors estimated that in 2014, just under 25% of the global population were latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Investment in improved diagnostics and treatment of those with LTBI are needed if the 2050 target of eliminating TB is to be reached.
Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection
Source:
Houben RM, Dodd PJ. The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: A Re-Estimation Using Mathematical Modelling. PLOS Medicine 2016; 13: e1002152. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002152