Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Preferences/Values | Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Probability/Bayes | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa -
ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Decision Analysis | Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Global -
OrganizationWeb Portal 2024Society for Medical Decision Making
The Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), founded in 1979, works to improve health and …
The Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), founded in 1979, works to improve health and clinical care of individuals and populations through the advancement of systematic methods to address decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, and to provide a training ground for scholars in the field of medical decision making. Members include researchers, clinicians, educators, managers and policy makers from varied backgrounds and academic disciplines. SMDM provides opportunities for collaboration, networking and mentorship to professionals and trainees…
Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Value of Information | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Global | North America | Europe -
OrganizationWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2024Behavioraleconomics.com
Behavioraleconomics.com is the official home of the online behavioral science network, Behavioral Economics Group, The …
Behavioraleconomics.com is the official home of the online behavioral science network, Behavioral Economics Group, The Behavioral Economics Guide, and a behavioral science blog that publishes the latest ideas and practices from academia, business and public policy. This resource portal contains the current and past versions of the Behavioral Economics Guide, a job board, a behavioral economics event calendar, postgraduate programs, and multiple resources such as the Mini (B)Encyclopedia which defines behavioral science concepts, TED Talks on various…
Preferences/Values | Decision Theory | Decision Psychology | Global -
OrganizationWeb Portal 2024Society for Judgment and Decision-Making
The Society for Judgment and Decision Making is an interdisciplinary academic organization dedicated to the …
The Society for Judgment and Decision Making is an interdisciplinary academic organization dedicated to the study of normative, descriptive, and prescriptive theories of judgments and decisions. Its members include psychologists, economists, organizational researchers, decision analysts, and other decision researchers. Online resources include links to publications, teaching resources, course syllabi, blogs and PhD Programs all related to Judgment and Decision Making. The Society's primary event is its Annual Meeting at which Society members present their research.…
Preferences/Values | Decision Theory | Decision Psychology | Business/Industry | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Estimating Benefits of Regulations Affecting Addictive Goods
The question of how to evaluate lost consumer surplus in benefit−cost analyses is controversial. There …
The question of how to evaluate lost consumer surplus in benefit−cost analyses is controversial. There are clear health benefits of regulations that curb consumption of goods with health risks, such as tobacco products and foods high in fats, calories, sugar, and sodium. Yet, if regulations cause consumers to give up goods they like, the health benefits they experience may be offset by some utility loss, which benefit−cost analyses of regulations need to take into account.…
Preferences/Values | Decision Theory | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Mental Health | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2023Estimated Reductions in Opioid Overdose Deaths with Sustainment of Public Health Interventions in 4 U.S. States
This study utilizes a decision analytical model to simulate the opioid epidemic in four heavily …
This study utilizes a decision analytical model to simulate the opioid epidemic in four heavily impacted states: Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio. By analyzing the effects of increased initiation and retention of medications for opioid use disorder (MOUDs) and enhanced naloxone distribution over a 2 to 5-year timeframe, the research assesses the potential reduction in opioid overdose deaths (OODs). Results indicate that sustaining a combination of interventions could lead to substantial reductions in OODs,…
Decision Analysis | Mathematical Models | North America -
ArticlePublication 2013Modeling the Effectiveness of Initial Management Strategies for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ
This paper compares alternative strategies to manage ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The authors used …
This paper compares alternative strategies to manage ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The authors used a disease simulation model to simulate the clinical events after six treatments (lumpectomy alone, lumpectomy with radiation, lumpectomy with radiation and tamoxifen, lumpectomy with tamoxifen, and mastectomy with and without breast reconstruction). Outcomes included disease-free, invasive disease-free, overall survival and breast preservation. Data were from the published literature. The results showed that for women aged 45 years at diagnosis, both mastectomy…
Decision Analysis | Health Outcomes | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine