Resources Repository
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GuidelinesPublication 2012Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-6
This paper discusses methods for the reporting of uncertainty, both in terms of deterministic sensitivity …
This paper discusses methods for the reporting of uncertainty, both in terms of deterministic sensitivity analysis techniques and probabilistic methods. Stochastic (first-order) uncertainty is distinguished from both parameter (second-order) uncertainty and from heterogeneity, with structural uncertainty relating to the model itself forming another level of uncertainty. The article describes the process of estimating model inputs, whether these are point estimates or distributions. It also explores the link between parameter uncertainty, decision uncertainty, and value-of-information analysis.…
Calibration/Validation | Value of Information | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine -
BookPublication 2010Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Professional Judgment
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment …
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment and decision making literature, and behavioral economics. It combines quantitative approaches to empirical analysis and decision making (i.e., statistics and decision science) with the psychological literature illustrating the systematic errors of the intuitive decision maker.
Decision Analysis | Value of Information | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Test Performance | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | North America -
BookPublication 2009Encyclopedia of Medical Decision Making
This encyclopedia addresses both prescriptive and descriptive decision making through a conceptual structure consisting of six …
This encyclopedia addresses both prescriptive and descriptive decision making through a conceptual structure consisting of six components of classical decision analysis. It includes articles that have been prepared by more than 200 contributors from around the world. The alphabetical organization of the encyclopedia facilitates access to information. A Reader’s Guide, organized by category of the decisionmaking process includes the following 7 components: Identification of the decision maker - in other words, who must choose. In general, there…
Decision Analysis | Value of Information | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Evidence Synthesis | Test Performance | Mathematical Models | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Health/Medicine -
BookPublication 2007Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications
Decision analysis consists of a prescriptive theory and associated models and tools that aid individuals …
Decision analysis consists of a prescriptive theory and associated models and tools that aid individuals or groups confronted with complex decision problems in a wide variety of contexts. Decision analysis can be applied to the environment, health and medicine, engineering, public policy, and business. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts on decision analysis. It covers the broad scope of decision analysis at an advanced level and includes chapters written by…
Decision Analysis | Value of Information | Decision Theory | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
BookPublication 1980Clinical Decision Analysis
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health …
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health at the Center for the Analysis of Health Practices. The book had its origins in a set of classroom materials developed during the academic year 1974-75 for an elective course in medical decision making at the Harvard Medical School. In this book students are shown how to structure clinical decision problems, how to systematically formulate the intertwining roles of diagnosis and treatment, how to…
Decision Analysis | Value of Information | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Test Performance | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global | North America | Europe | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2023Estimated Reductions in Opioid Overdose Deaths with Sustainment of Public Health Interventions in 4 U.S. States
This study utilizes a decision analytical model to simulate the opioid epidemic in four heavily …
This study utilizes a decision analytical model to simulate the opioid epidemic in four heavily impacted states: Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio. By analyzing the effects of increased initiation and retention of medications for opioid use disorder (MOUDs) and enhanced naloxone distribution over a 2 to 5-year timeframe, the research assesses the potential reduction in opioid overdose deaths (OODs). Results indicate that sustaining a combination of interventions could lead to substantial reductions in OODs,…
Decision Analysis | Mathematical Models | North America -
ArticlePublication 2013Modeling the Effectiveness of Initial Management Strategies for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ
This paper compares alternative strategies to manage ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The authors used …
This paper compares alternative strategies to manage ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The authors used a disease simulation model to simulate the clinical events after six treatments (lumpectomy alone, lumpectomy with radiation, lumpectomy with radiation and tamoxifen, lumpectomy with tamoxifen, and mastectomy with and without breast reconstruction). Outcomes included disease-free, invasive disease-free, overall survival and breast preservation. Data were from the published literature. The results showed that for women aged 45 years at diagnosis, both mastectomy…
Decision Analysis | Health Outcomes | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 1984Using Fire in Forest Management: Decision Making under Uncertainty
Prescribed fires are fires that are started under controlled conditions. This is an important strategy …
Prescribed fires are fires that are started under controlled conditions. This is an important strategy used by professionals in modern forest management. Designing, planning, and executing strategies that rely on prescribed fires is challenging because of multiple uncertainties (e.g., weather, fire behavior, etc.). In this paper, decision analysis techniques are used to evaluate prescribed fire decisions in three national forest case study applications.
Decision Analysis | Environmental Health | Climate/Environment -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Global