Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Government/Law | Middle East & North Africa | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2020Valuing COVID-19 Mortality Risk
In this article, the author evaluates whether conventional estimates of the value per statistical life …
In this article, the author evaluates whether conventional estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) in the United States (about $10 million) are appropriate for evaluating policies that affect risk of COVID-19. This estimate may be too large, because: (1) VSL estimates marginal values but COVID-19 risks can be non-marginal; (2) VSL is estimated for the average resident, but COVID-19 mortality is concentrated among the elderly; and (3) the pandemic has caused substantial losses…
Preferences/Values | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Government/Law | Global | Infectious Diseases -
ArticlePublication 2019Misinformation Has Created a New World Disorder
This article, in brief, discusses (1) that many types of information disorder exist online, from …
This article, in brief, discusses (1) that many types of information disorder exist online, from fabricated videos to impersonated accounts to memes designed to manipulate genuine content, (2) automation and microtargeting tactics have made it easier for agents of disinformation to weaponize regular users of the social web to spread harmful messages, and (3) much research is needed to understand the effects of disinformation and build safeguards against it. This description was adapted from the…
Preferences/Values | Government/Law | Climate/Environment | Global | Decision Psychology | Culture/Society | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimating the Fitness Cost and Benefit of Cefixime Resistance in Neisseria Gonorrhoeae
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more …
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more than half of annual infections occur in men who have sex with men (MSM). As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, an improved understanding is needed of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. The authors developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime-sensitive…
Risk Analysis | Decision Analysis | Government/Law | Global | Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2016Accounting for Technical, Ethical, and Political Factors in Priority Setting
This article investigates two cases of priority setting to explore how, in addition to technical …
This article investigates two cases of priority setting to explore how, in addition to technical considerations, ethical and political factors shape the allocation of health resources. First, they discuss how Thai authorities adjudicated a coverage decision for HLA-B*1502 screening, which meets the national cost-effectiveness threshold for only some of the conditions it can detect. Second, they consider England’s Cancer Drugs Fund to investigate the interplay of technical decision making and political reality. The findings suggest four concluding…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Government/Law | Climate/Environment | Global | Priority Setting/Ethics | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Europe -
ArticlePublication 2021Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and …
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, the authors argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
Decision Theory | Government/Law | Global | Priority Setting/Ethics | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2020Infectious Disease Pandemic Planning and Response: Incorporating Decision Analysis
During a pandemic, decisions must be made under rapidly changing, uncertain conditions. Despite advances in …
During a pandemic, decisions must be made under rapidly changing, uncertain conditions. Despite advances in analytical methods for gaining early situational awareness (i.e., of a disease’s transmissibility and severity) and for predicting the likely effectiveness of interventions, a major gap exists globally in terms of integrating this information in policy documents. The authors argue that mathematical and statistical models are important tools for pandemic planning and response. Once an outbreak of pandemic potential has been…
Decision Analysis | Government/Law | Global | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2021Misinformation in and About Science
Humans learn about the world by collectively acquiring information, filtering it, and sharing what we …
Humans learn about the world by collectively acquiring information, filtering it, and sharing what we know. Misinformation undermines this process. The repercussions are extensive. Without reliable and accurate sources of information, we cannot hope to halt climate change, make reasoned democratic decisions, or control a global pandemic. Most analyses of misinformation focus on popular and social media, but the scientific enterprise faces a parallel set of problems – from hype and hyperbole to publication bias…
Preferences/Values | Government/Law | Global | Decision Psychology | Social Determinants | Culture/Society | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Misinformation and Public Opinion of Science and Health
This article summarizes the literature on misinformation, beginning with an overview of the most common …
This article summarizes the literature on misinformation, beginning with an overview of the most common definitions of misinformation (and related terms) in the communication literature and then a review of academic studies in the areas of science and health. The author acknowledges four overarching questions that have emerged prominently in recent years: (1) What does “misinformation” (and the terms that are oftentimes treated synonymously) mean? (2) How big of a problem is it in areas…
Preferences/Values | Climate/Environment | Global | Decision Psychology | Social Determinants | Culture/Society | Energy/Engineering | Education/Labor | Science/Technology | North America