Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Decision Analysis | Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Global -
ReviewPublication 2012Applying Decision Science to Managing National Forests
This publication is an example of the application of decision science to the management of …
This publication is an example of the application of decision science to the management of federal public forests, in particular to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations. Through three case studies, the authors describe four stages of a decision analytic approach: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring…
Decision Analysis | Value of Information | Risk Analysis | Social Determinants | Environmental Health | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | Government/Law -
ReviewPublication 2011Simulation Models of Obesity: A Review of the Literature
Simulation models combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for …
Simulation models combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for examining how the effects of obesity unfold over time and impact population health. They can aid in the understanding of the complex interaction of the drivers of diet and activity and their relation to health outcomes. This paper provided an overview of different types of simulation models used to evaluate the potential impact of policies to address the obesity epidemic.…
Decision Analysis | Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2005Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems
This review monograph was prepared in response to a request from the United States Air …
This review monograph was prepared in response to a request from the United States Air Force Research Laboratory for a study of modern decision science that would aid in its planning of research programs and, more specifically, developing methods and tools for decision support. The emphasis is on relatively high-level decisionmaking rather than, say, that of pilots or intelligence analysts in the midst of real-time operations. They focus largely on what the military refers to as…
Decision Psychology | Decision Analysis | Decision Theory | Military/Defense | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Estimated Reductions in Opioid Overdose Deaths with Sustainment of Public Health Interventions in 4 U.S. States
This study utilizes a decision analytical model to simulate the opioid epidemic in four heavily …
This study utilizes a decision analytical model to simulate the opioid epidemic in four heavily impacted states: Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio. By analyzing the effects of increased initiation and retention of medications for opioid use disorder (MOUDs) and enhanced naloxone distribution over a 2 to 5-year timeframe, the research assesses the potential reduction in opioid overdose deaths (OODs). Results indicate that sustaining a combination of interventions could lead to substantial reductions in OODs,…
Decision Analysis | Mathematical Models | North America -
ArticlePublication 2013Modeling the Effectiveness of Initial Management Strategies for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ
This paper compares alternative strategies to manage ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The authors used …
This paper compares alternative strategies to manage ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The authors used a disease simulation model to simulate the clinical events after six treatments (lumpectomy alone, lumpectomy with radiation, lumpectomy with radiation and tamoxifen, lumpectomy with tamoxifen, and mastectomy with and without breast reconstruction). Outcomes included disease-free, invasive disease-free, overall survival and breast preservation. Data were from the published literature. The results showed that for women aged 45 years at diagnosis, both mastectomy…
Decision Analysis | Health Outcomes | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 1984Using Fire in Forest Management: Decision Making under Uncertainty
Prescribed fires are fires that are started under controlled conditions. This is an important strategy …
Prescribed fires are fires that are started under controlled conditions. This is an important strategy used by professionals in modern forest management. Designing, planning, and executing strategies that rely on prescribed fires is challenging because of multiple uncertainties (e.g., weather, fire behavior, etc.). In this paper, decision analysis techniques are used to evaluate prescribed fire decisions in three national forest case study applications.
Decision Analysis | Environmental Health | Climate/Environment -
ReviewPublication 2021Review of Web-Based Tools for Value-of-Information Analysis
Value-of-information analysis (VOI) is an analytic approach used to inform research priorities, guide clinical trial …
Value-of-information analysis (VOI) is an analytic approach used to inform research priorities, guide clinical trial design, and provide information for decisions about reimbursement. The authors review existing web-based tools to facilitate VOI calculations. These include Sheffield Accelerated Value of Information (SAVI), the web interface to the BCEA (Bayesian Cost-Effectiveness Analysis) R package (BCEAweb), Rapid Assessment of Need for Evidence (RANE), and Value of Information for Cardiovascular Trials and Other Comparative Research (VICTOR).
Value of Information | Decision Theory | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Global