Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Theory | Health Outcomes | Government/Law | Costing Methods | State-Transition | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa -
ArticlePublication 2019Misinformation Has Created a New World Disorder
This article, in brief, discusses (1) that many types of information disorder exist online, from …
This article, in brief, discusses (1) that many types of information disorder exist online, from fabricated videos to impersonated accounts to memes designed to manipulate genuine content, (2) automation and microtargeting tactics have made it easier for agents of disinformation to weaponize regular users of the social web to spread harmful messages, and (3) much research is needed to understand the effects of disinformation and build safeguards against it. This description was adapted from the…
Preferences/Values | Government/Law | Climate/Environment | Decision Psychology | Culture/Society | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimating the Fitness Cost and Benefit of Cefixime Resistance in Neisseria Gonorrhoeae
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more …
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more than half of annual infections occur in men who have sex with men (MSM). As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, an improved understanding is needed of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. The authors developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime-sensitive…
Risk Analysis | Dynamic Transmission | Government/Law | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ReviewPublication 2012Applying Decision Science to Managing National Forests
This publication is an example of the application of decision science to the management of …
This publication is an example of the application of decision science to the management of federal public forests, in particular to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations. Through three case studies, the authors describe four stages of a decision analytic approach: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring…
Risk Analysis | Government/Law | Climate/Environment | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Social Determinants | Environmental Health | Policy/Regulation -
ReviewPublication 2001Modeling for Health Care and Other Policy Decisions: Uses, Roles and Validity
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making …
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making in health care and other domains. The role of models to support recommendations on the cost-effective use of medical technologies and pharmaceuticals is controversial. At the heart of the controversy is the degree to which experimental or other empirical evidence should be required prior to model use. The authors argue that the controversy stems in part from a misconception that…
Technology Assessment | Government/Law | Climate/Environment | Priority Setting/Ethics | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | North America -
ReviewPublication 1982Decision Analysis: An Overview
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can …
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can and cannot do, why one should care to do this, and how one does it. Keeney describes decision analysis as "a formalization of common sense for decision problems which are too complex for informal use of common sense." He provides a more technical definition also, describing decision analysis as "a philosophy, articulated by a set of logical axioms, and a methodology…
Preferences/Values | Decision Theory | Government/Law | Decision Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2021Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and …
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, the authors argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
Decision Theory | Government/Law | Priority Setting/Ethics | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Valuing COVID-19 Mortality Risk
In this article, the author evaluates whether conventional estimates of the value per statistical life …
In this article, the author evaluates whether conventional estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) in the United States (about $10 million) are appropriate for evaluating policies that affect risk of COVID-19. This estimate may be too large, because: (1) VSL estimates marginal values but COVID-19 risks can be non-marginal; (2) VSL is estimated for the average resident, but COVID-19 mortality is concentrated among the elderly; and (3) the pandemic has caused substantial losses…
Preferences/Values | Government/Law | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Global -
ArticlePublication 2021COVID and the Age–VSL Relationship
In this article, the researchers explore the approach used to value COVID-19 mortality risk reductions …
In this article, the researchers explore the approach used to value COVID-19 mortality risk reductions in analyses of lockdowns and other policies. Many rely on a population-average estimate of the value per statistical life (VSL); others adjust VSL for life expectancy at the age of death. The article explores the implications of theory and empirical studies, which suggest that the relationship between age and VSL is uncertain; these uncertainties in turn may affect whether the…
Preferences/Values | Government/Law | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | North America