Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Theory | Business/Industry | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Operations Research | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 1982Decision Analysis: An Overview
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can …
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can and cannot do, why one should care to do this, and how one does it. Keeney describes decision analysis as "a formalization of common sense for decision problems which are too complex for informal use of common sense." He provides a more technical definition also, describing decision analysis as "a philosophy, articulated by a set of logical axioms, and a methodology…
Decision Theory | Business/Industry | Science/Technology | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense -
ArticlePublication 2021Racial and Ethnic Inequities in the Early Distribution of U.S. COVID-19 Testing Sites and Mortality
In 2020, U.S. COVID-19 testing sites were pivotal not just for diagnosis but also to …
In 2020, U.S. COVID-19 testing sites were pivotal not just for diagnosis but also to provide data that would contribute to understanding transmission. This research explored how these sites were distributed in relation to racial and ethnic demographics and its connection to observed disparities in COVID-19 outcomes. Data from mid-April to late May 2020 revealed that testing sites were not equally distributed among racial groups. Specifically, there was an overrepresentation of testing sites in areas…
Health Outcomes | Science/Technology | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and …
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, the authors argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
Decision Theory | Science/Technology | Priority Setting/Ethics | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2021Individual and Social Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake
This article examined the individual, communication and social determinants associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake using …
This article examined the individual, communication and social determinants associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake using national survey data collected before vaccines were available in the U.S. Of note, individuals under the federal poverty level and racial and ethnic minorities were oversampled. Outcomes included the likelihood of vaccinating self and dependents (e.g., children). Independent variables included perceptions of risk, exposure to different media for COVID-19 news, political party identification, confidence in scientists and social determinants of…
Health Outcomes | Science/Technology | Evidence Synthesis | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Clinical Care | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy: The Five C's to Tackle Behavioral and Sociodemographic Factors
Reversing and mitigating the ongoing damage associated with the COVID-19 pandemic requires that 60-70% of …
Reversing and mitigating the ongoing damage associated with the COVID-19 pandemic requires that 60-70% of the world’s population needs to be vaccinated. This article acknowledges that hesitancy is one of the most substantial hurdles to vaccination uptake at levels that would achieve herd immunity. Authors define hesitancy as “a delay in acceptance or refusal despite availability.” Five factors are proposed to tackle vaccine hesitancy, referred to as the five “C’s”: Confidence (importance, safety and efficacy…
Health Outcomes | Science/Technology | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Evidence Synthesis | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Interpreting COVID-19 Test Results: A Bayesian Approach
This article considers the following question with respect to interpreting the results of polymerase chain reaction …
This article considers the following question with respect to interpreting the results of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays from nasal and pharyngeal swabs for COVID-19 to inform clinical decision making: "While a positive result in an acutely ill patient is straightforward, how should physicians interpret negative tests in patients with suspected COVID-19 infection?" Using an assumption of near-perfect specificity of PCR assays for COVID-19, the authors acknowledge the uncertainty of test sensitivity. They consider two clinical scenarios…
Probability/Bayes | Science/Technology | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2018Equity Impact Vaccines May Have on Averting Deaths and Medical Impoverishment
In this analysis, authors estimated the number of deaths averted and the number of cases …
In this analysis, authors estimated the number of deaths averted and the number of cases of medical impoverishment averted of ten antigens and their corresponding vaccines across income quintiles for forty-one low- and middle-income countries. The study found that vaccines administered between 2016 and 2030 would prevent 36 million deaths. Vaccines will have the greatest impact on reducing cases of poverty caused by hepatitis B, helping an estimated 14 million people avoid medical impoverishment. An…
Health Outcomes | Science/Technology | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Reduced Burden of Childhood Diarrheal Diseases through Increased Access to Water and Sanitation in India: Modeling Analysis
This analysis estimates the health and economic benefits of scaling up the coverage of piped …
This analysis estimates the health and economic benefits of scaling up the coverage of piped water and improved sanitation to a near-universal 95% level among Indian households. The authors used an agent-based microsimulation platform, IndiaSim, to model disease progression and individual healthcare-seeking behavior in India, and use ECEA to estimate health and economic outcomes over time. They found that scaling up access to piped water and improved sanitation could avert 43,352 diarrheal episodes and 68…
Health Outcomes | Science/Technology | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Social Determinants | Environmental Health | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific