Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2013Validation and Calibration of a Simulation Model of Pediatric HIV Infection
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of …
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model framework. This CEPAC-Pediatric model was then validated by varying CD4 data and comparing the corresponding model-generated survival curves to empirical survival curves obtained from the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). The model was calibrated to other African countries by systematically varying immunologic and HIV mortality-related input parameters. In the calibration analyses, the model-generated…
Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2013Contribution of H. Pylori and Smoking to US Incidence of Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A Microsimulation Model
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading …
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. This analysis estimates the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type non-cardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. The authors developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to U.S. epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which…
Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Culture/Society | North America -
ReviewPublication 2012From Efficacy to Equity: Literature Review
Resource allocation is a challenging issue faced by health policy decision makers requiring careful consideration …
Resource allocation is a challenging issue faced by health policy decision makers requiring careful consideration of many factors. The aim of this study was to analyse the peer-reviewed literature to identify criteria reported in empirical studies that involved healthcare decisionmakers and in studies describing multicriteria tools.
Health/Medicine | Priority Setting/Ethics | Social Determinants -
ArticlePublication 2012Modeling the Risks and Benefits of Depression Treatment for Children and Young Adults
This article, published in Value in Health, presents a discrete event simulation model to quantify …
This article, published in Value in Health, presents a discrete event simulation model to quantify the trade-offs with respect to clinical benefits and the risk of fatal and non-fatal suicidal behavior of alternative treatment strategies for a U.S. pediatric population with major depressive disorder. The authors evaluate treatment strategies including: selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), and a combination of both. The results show that the use of SSRIs is associated with…
Health Outcomes | Health/Medicine | Microsimulation | Technology Assessment | Mental Health | North America -
ArticlePublication 2012Value of Family Planning for Improving Maternal Health in Rural Afghanistan
This article, published in the Afghanistan Journal of Public Health, uses a model designed to …
This article, published in the Afghanistan Journal of Public Health, uses a model designed to simulate the natural history of pregnancy and associated maternal mortality and morbidity contextualized to Afghanistan to assess the cost-effectiveness of family planning in the rural Maywand district of Kandahar. Using total fertility rate, pregnancy-related complications, maternal mortality ratio, lifetime risk of maternal death, and proportionate mortality ratio as outcomes, the model finds that increasing family planning from 8% to 30-50% could…
Health Outcomes | Health/Medicine | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Policy/Regulation | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2011Model-Based Analyses to Compare Health and Economic Outcomes of Cancer Control: Inclusion of Disparities
In order to identify strategies that improve both population health and ensure its equitable distribution, …
In order to identify strategies that improve both population health and ensure its equitable distribution, the authors developed a typology of cancer disparities that considers types of inequalities among black, white, and Hispanic populations across different cancers. This paper reports on the typology using an existing disease simulation model of cervical cancer that was calibrated to clinical, epidemiological, and cost data in the United States and presents characteristics important for policy discussions. The typology proposed…
Health/Medicine | Priority Setting/Ethics | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Culture/Society | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2010Empirically Evaluating Decision-Analytic Models
To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. The authors …
To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. The authors developed a structured reporting format for model evaluation and conducted a structured literature review to characterize current model evaluation recommendations and practices. As an illustration, they applied the reporting format to evaluate a microsimulation of human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. The model's outputs and uncertainty ranges were compared with multiple outcomes from a study of long-term progression from high-grade precancer…
Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
ReviewPublication 2010Validation of Population-Based Disease Simulation Models: A Review
This article develops a framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models, and reviews the …
This article develops a framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models, and reviews the principles and methods for such models. While computer simulation models are used increasingly to support public health research and policy, questions about their quality persist. Based on the review, the authors formulated a set of recommendations for gathering evidence of model credibility. They find that evidence of model credibility derives from examining: 1) the process of model development, 2) the…
Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants -
ArticlePublication 2009Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Pregnancy Termination Strategies in Mexico City
This study evaluated the health and economic outcomes associated with three alternative first-trimester abortion techniques …
This study evaluated the health and economic outcomes associated with three alternative first-trimester abortion techniques in Mexico City using a computer-based model to simulate induced abortion and its potential complications. Strategies included alternative modalities for first-trimester pregnancy termination: hospital-based dilatation and curettage (D&C), hospital-based manual vacuum aspiration (MVA), clinic-based MVA and medical abortion using vaginal misoprostol. Outcomes included number of complications, lifetime costs, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life expectancy. Assuming all options were equally available,…
Health Outcomes | Health/Medicine | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Latin America & Caribbean