Resources Repository
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GuidelinesPublication 2012Modeling Good Research Practices - Overview: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-1
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the …
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), provides the overarching recommendations, and discusses future work that is needed. The audience for these papers includes anyone who build models, stakeholders who utilize their results, and those concerned with the use of models to support decision making. This article is part 1 of…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | State-Transition | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Value of Information | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Theory | State-Transition | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2018Resource Pack: Model Calibration and Validation
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides broad exposure to …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides broad exposure to empirical calibration and validation methods for mathematical models used in health decision analysis. Included are a selection of overviews, guidelines, tutorials, and applications. Given the complexity of diseases and variation in data quality, there are invariably a number of parameters that are unobserved or cannot be estimated directly but can be inferred through the process of model calibration. Model calibration…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2015Population Health Model (POHEM): An Overview
This paper provides an overview of the rationale, methodology and applications of the Population Health …
This paper provides an overview of the rationale, methodology and applications of the Population Health Model (POHEM). POHEM is a health microsimulation model, developed at Statistics Canada in the early 1990s. The authors describe that POHEM draws together rich multivariate data from a wide range of sources to simulate the lifecycle of the Canadian population, specifically focusing on aspects of health. The model dynamically simulates individuals’ disease states, risk factors, and health determinants, in order…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Costing Methods | Evidence Synthesis | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | North America -
ReportPublication 2015Modeling to Improve Policy Decisions in the Americas: Noncommunicable Diseases
In the Region of the Americas, noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a clear threat not only …
In the Region of the Americas, noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a clear threat not only to human health, but also to a country’s economic development and growth. The evidence on both of these counts is compelling. In 2012, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancers, chronic respiratory conditions including asthma, and other NCDs were the cause of 4.5 million deaths in the Americas. Of that total number, 1.5 million of them were premature, occurring among people aged 30-69…
Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Costing Methods | Priority Setting/Ethics | Microsimulation | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mental Health | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
GuidelinesPublication 2012Model Transparency and Validation: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-7
This paper discusses how to improve trust in the use of health care models through …
This paper discusses how to improve trust in the use of health care models through validation and transparency. Validation involves face validity (wherein experts evaluate model structure, data sources, assumptions, and results), verification or internal validity (check accuracy of coding), cross validity (comparison of results with other models analyzing same problem), external validity (comparing model results to real-world results), and predictive validity (comparing model results with prospectively observed events). Recommendations are provided for nontechnical description…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2011Simulation Models of Obesity: A Review of the Literature
Simulation models combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for …
Simulation models combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for examining how the effects of obesity unfold over time and impact population health. They can aid in the understanding of the complex interaction of the drivers of diet and activity and their relation to health outcomes. This paper provided an overview of different types of simulation models used to evaluate the potential impact of policies to address the obesity epidemic.…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2010Model Uncertainty in Economic Evaluation of Health Interventions: Rotavirus Vaccination in Vietnam
Motivated by observed discrepancies between 2 published studies on the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in …
Motivated by observed discrepancies between 2 published studies on the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Vietnam, the authors' objectives were to illustrate a specific, systematic approach to assessing model (structure and process) uncertainty and to quantify explicitly the contributions of different sources of variation in the outputs of different studies that share the same research question. On the basis of a series of working definitions of key model elements, the authors developed 5 alternative computer…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific -
ReviewPublication 2008Modeling Cervical Cancer Prevention in Developed Countries
Decision-analytic models are increasingly developed to simulate disease burden and interventions in different settings in …
Decision-analytic models are increasingly developed to simulate disease burden and interventions in different settings in order to evaluate the benefits and cost-effectiveness of primary and secondary interventions. This article is a review of mathematical models that have been used to evaluate HPV vaccination in the context of developed countries with existing screening programs. Despite variations in model assumptions and uncertainty in existing data, pre-adolescent vaccination of females in the setting of current screening practices has…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology