Resources Repository
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ReviewPublication 2016Remembering Howard Raiffa
Howard Raiffa (1924-2016) had a profound influence on all aspects of the decision sciences and on …
Howard Raiffa (1924-2016) had a profound influence on all aspects of the decision sciences and on the fields of systems analysis and operations research. He guided the introduction of the decision sciences into numerous fields such as business, medicine, public health, the environmental sciences, and law, and was instrumental in building world-recognized institutions such as the Kennedy School at Harvard and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis near Vienna, Austria. This article is a thoughtful tribute by…
Operations Research | Decision Theory | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | North America -
BookPublication 2016Foundations of Decision Analysis
This book is described by the authors as emerging from what they have learned by …
This book is described by the authors as emerging from what they have learned by "teaching decision analysis to thousands of people in the United States and around the world in university classes and special professional educational programs". The early chapters and certain later chapters are written to be accessible to a general audience. Chapters 1 through 17 introduce the foundations of decision analysis without requiring significant mathematical sophistication. Chapter 26 discusses multi-attribute decision problems…
Operations Research | Decision Theory | Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Global -
ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Operations Research | Decision Theory | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2023Resource Pack: Diagnostic Tests, Bayes, and COVID-19
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing …
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing for COVID-19. The pack provides materials that will be particularly useful for educators who are teaching diagnostic test performance, value of information, and probability revision using Bayes’ theorem. The majority of papers focus on PCR or rapid antigen testing on samples obtained from the respiratory tract by nasopharyngeal swab. The mechanism of false negative results (e.g., timing of sample collection…
Test Performance | Probability/Bayes | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
ReviewPublication 2021Review of Web-Based Tools for Value-of-Information Analysis
Value-of-information analysis (VOI) is an analytic approach used to inform research priorities, guide clinical trial …
Value-of-information analysis (VOI) is an analytic approach used to inform research priorities, guide clinical trial design, and provide information for decisions about reimbursement. The authors review existing web-based tools to facilitate VOI calculations. These include Sheffield Accelerated Value of Information (SAVI), the web interface to the BCEA (Bayesian Cost-Effectiveness Analysis) R package (BCEAweb), Rapid Assessment of Need for Evidence (RANE), and Value of Information for Cardiovascular Trials and Other Comparative Research (VICTOR).
Decision Theory | Priority Setting/Ethics | Value of Information | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2008Cost-Effectiveness of Rapid Point-of-Care Prenatal Syphilis Screening in Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of using rapid point-of-care tests for prenatal syphilis screening among …
This paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of using rapid point-of-care tests for prenatal syphilis screening among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa, a region with syphilis prevalence rates as high as 17%, and where traditional multi-test screening methods have been challenging to implement. Focusing on newly available rapid point-of-care screening tests, strategies differed by the initial test [rapid plasma reagin (RPR), immunochromographic strip (ICS)], need for confirmation with Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay, and number of visits required.…
Test Performance | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2023Performance of Rapid Antigen Tests to Detect Symptomatic and Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection
The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of rapid antigen tests (Ag-RDTs) …
The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of rapid antigen tests (Ag-RDTs) for detection of SARS-CoV-2 among symptomatic and asymptomatic participants. The general findings were that the performance of Ag-RDTs was optimized when asymptomatic participants tested 3 times at 48-hour intervals and when symptomatic participants tested 2 times separated by 48 hours. Participants completed Ag-RDTs and reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 every 48 hours for 15 days. They…
Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Variation in False-Negative Rate of Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction-Based SARS-CoV-2 Tests by Time Since Exposure
This study aimed to determine the false-negative rate of RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection based …
This study aimed to determine the false-negative rate of RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection based on the timeline of exposure and symptom onset. Drawing from data in seven studies involving 1,330 upper respiratory tract samples, a Bayesian model was used to estimate these rates. Findings showed that in the initial four days prior to typical symptom onset, the false-negative rate decreased from 100% on day 1 to 67% on day 4. By the day of…
Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ReviewPublication 2021Considerations for Diagnostic COVID-19 Tests
During the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a rush by numerous diagnostic …
During the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a rush by numerous diagnostic test manufacturers to create, validate, and implement testing methods. This review discusses the pivotal role of diagnostic tests during the pandemic's first global wave, highlighting the challenges in technology and implementation experienced early on. The study also offers insights for enhancing the use of diagnostics, especially syndromic ones, should there be future spikes or regional outbreaks of COVID-19. The overarching…
Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America