Resources Repository
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ReviewPublication 2016Remembering Howard Raiffa
Howard Raiffa (1924-2016) had a profound influence on all aspects of the decision sciences and on …
Howard Raiffa (1924-2016) had a profound influence on all aspects of the decision sciences and on the fields of systems analysis and operations research. He guided the introduction of the decision sciences into numerous fields such as business, medicine, public health, the environmental sciences, and law, and was instrumental in building world-recognized institutions such as the Kennedy School at Harvard and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis near Vienna, Austria. This article is a thoughtful tribute by…
Preferences/Values | Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Military/Defense | North America | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
Working PaperPublication 2015Benefit-Cost Analysis and the Cities
This paper provides a short introduction to the use of benefit-cost analysis to assess interventions …
This paper provides a short introduction to the use of benefit-cost analysis to assess interventions undertaken at the city or municipal level. It introduces the concepts that underlie the conduct of benefit-cost analysis, describes the major analytic components, and discusses how to tailor the analysis to the characteristics of the policy and the resources available. It concludes with a list of references for those interested in learning more.
Priority Setting/Ethics | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Government/Law | North America | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Social Determinants | Environmental Health | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | Economics/Finance | Critical Thinking/Analysis -
ReviewPublication 2005Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems
This review monograph was prepared in response to a request from the United States Air …
This review monograph was prepared in response to a request from the United States Air Force Research Laboratory for a study of modern decision science that would aid in its planning of research programs and, more specifically, developing methods and tools for decision support. The emphasis is on relatively high-level decisionmaking rather than, say, that of pilots or intelligence analysts in the midst of real-time operations. They focus largely on what the military refers to as…
Decision Psychology | Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Military/Defense | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Why the Backfire Effect Does Not Explain the Durability of Political Misperceptions
Previous research indicated that corrective information can sometimes provoke a so-called “backfire effect” in which …
Previous research indicated that corrective information can sometimes provoke a so-called “backfire effect” in which respondents more strongly endorsed a misperception about a controversial political or scientific issue when their beliefs or predispositions were challenged. This article shows how subsequent research and media coverage seized on this finding, distorting its generality and exaggerating its role relative to other factors in explaining the durability of political misperceptions. To the contrary, an emerging research consensus finds that…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Government/Law | North America | Social Determinants | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2021Misinformation in and About Science
Humans learn about the world by collectively acquiring information, filtering it, and sharing what we …
Humans learn about the world by collectively acquiring information, filtering it, and sharing what we know. Misinformation undermines this process. The repercussions are extensive. Without reliable and accurate sources of information, we cannot hope to halt climate change, make reasoned democratic decisions, or control a global pandemic. Most analyses of misinformation focus on popular and social media, but the scientific enterprise faces a parallel set of problems – from hype and hyperbole to publication bias…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Government/Law | North America | Social Determinants | Culture/Society | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2019Misinformation Has Created a New World Disorder
This article, in brief, discusses (1) that many types of information disorder exist online, from …
This article, in brief, discusses (1) that many types of information disorder exist online, from fabricated videos to impersonated accounts to memes designed to manipulate genuine content, (2) automation and microtargeting tactics have made it easier for agents of disinformation to weaponize regular users of the social web to spread harmful messages, and (3) much research is needed to understand the effects of disinformation and build safeguards against it. This description was adapted from the…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Government/Law | North America | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Online Competition between Pro- and Anti-Vaccination Views
Distrust in scientific expertise is dangerous. Opposition to vaccination with a future vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, …
Distrust in scientific expertise is dangerous. Opposition to vaccination with a future vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the causal agent of COVID-19, for example, could amplify outbreaks as happened for measles in 2019. Homemade remedies and falsehoods are being shared widely on the Internet, as well as dismissals of expert advice. There is a lack of understanding about how this distrust evolves at the system level. Authors provide a map of the contention surrounding vaccines that has…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Government/Law | North America | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2017Misinformation Lingers in Memory: Failure of Three Pro-Vaccination Strategies
People's inability to update their memories in light of corrective information may have important public …
People's inability to update their memories in light of corrective information may have important public health consequences, as in the case of vaccination choice. The authors compare three potentially effective strategies in vaccine promotion: (1) one contrasting myths vs. facts, (2) one employing fact and icon boxes, and (3) one showing images of non-vaccinated sick children. Beliefs in the autism/vaccines link and in vaccines side effects, along with intention to vaccinate a future child, were…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Government/Law | North America | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2017Increasing Vaccination: Putting Psychological Science into Action
Vaccination is one of the great achievements of the 20th century, yet persistent public health …
Vaccination is one of the great achievements of the 20th century, yet persistent public health problems include inadequate, delayed, and unstable vaccination uptake. Psychology offers three general propositions for understanding and intervening to increase uptake where vaccines are available and affordable. The first proposition is that thoughts and feelings can motivate getting vaccinated. Hundreds of studies have shown that risk beliefs and anticipated regret about infectious disease correlate reliably with getting vaccinated; low confidence in…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Government/Law | North America | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Global Governance | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global