Resources Repository
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BookPublication 2010Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Professional Judgment
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment …
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment and decision making literature, and behavioral economics. It combines quantitative approaches to empirical analysis and decision making (i.e., statistics and decision science) with the psychological literature illustrating the systematic errors of the intuitive decision maker.
Probability/Bayes | North America | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Test Performance | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2010Empirically Evaluating Decision-Analytic Models
To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. The authors …
To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. The authors developed a structured reporting format for model evaluation and conducted a structured literature review to characterize current model evaluation recommendations and practices. As an illustration, they applied the reporting format to evaluate a microsimulation of human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. The model's outputs and uncertainty ranges were compared with multiple outcomes from a study of long-term progression from high-grade precancer…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2009Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Including Boys in a HPV Vaccination Program in the U.S.
This article reports on a societal-perspective cost effectiveness analysis of including preadolescent boys in a …
This article reports on a societal-perspective cost effectiveness analysis of including preadolescent boys in a routine human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program for preadolescent girls. The analysis included girls and boys aged 12 years; interventions included HPV vaccination of girls alone and of girls and boys in the context of screening for cervical cancer. The authors found that with 75% vaccination coverage and an assumption of complete, lifelong vaccine efficacy, routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2008Health and Economic Implications of HPV Vaccination in the U.S.
This article reports on a study using models of HPV-16 and HPV-18 transmission and cervical …
This article reports on a study using models of HPV-16 and HPV-18 transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to compare the health and economic outcomes of vaccinating preadolescent girls in the US (at 12 years of age), and vaccinating older girls and women in catch-up programs (to 18, 21, or 26 years of age). The study also examined the health benefits of averting other HPV-16-related and HPV-18-related cancers, the prevention of HPV-6-related and HPV-11-related genital warts and…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2007Modeling HPV and Cervical Cancer in the U.S. for Analyses of Screening and Vaccination
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty …
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty about the natural history of disease that was used to provide quantitative insight into U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention. The authors developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ReviewPublication 2005Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems
This review monograph was prepared in response to a request from the United States Air …
This review monograph was prepared in response to a request from the United States Air Force Research Laboratory for a study of modern decision science that would aid in its planning of research programs and, more specifically, developing methods and tools for decision support. The emphasis is on relatively high-level decisionmaking rather than, say, that of pilots or intelligence analysts in the midst of real-time operations. They focus largely on what the military refers to as…
Decision Theory | North America | Decision Psychology | Decision Analysis | Military/Defense -
ReviewPublication 2001Modeling for Health Care and Other Policy Decisions: Uses, Roles and Validity
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making …
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making in health care and other domains. The role of models to support recommendations on the cost-effective use of medical technologies and pharmaceuticals is controversial. At the heart of the controversy is the degree to which experimental or other empirical evidence should be required prior to model use. The authors argue that the controversy stems in part from a misconception that…
Mathematical Models | North America | Priority Setting/Ethics | Evidence Synthesis | Technology Assessment | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
BookPublication 1980Clinical Decision Analysis
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health …
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health at the Center for the Analysis of Health Practices. The book had its origins in a set of classroom materials developed during the academic year 1974-75 for an elective course in medical decision making at the Harvard Medical School. In this book students are shown how to structure clinical decision problems, how to systematically formulate the intertwining roles of diagnosis and treatment, how to…
Probability/Bayes | North America | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Test Performance | Value of Information | State-Transition | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global | Europe | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
BookPublication 1978Swine Flu Affair: Decision-Making on a Slippery Disease
This report from the Institute of Medicine, The Swine Flu Affair: Decision-Making on a Slippery …
This report from the Institute of Medicine, The Swine Flu Affair: Decision-Making on a Slippery Disease, was written to review and critique the decisions made around the 1976 swine flu threat. In 1976, a small group of soldiers at Fort Dix were infected with a swine flu virus that was deemed similar to the virus responsible for the great 1918-19 world-wide flu pandemic. The U.S. government initiated an unprecedented effort to immunize every American against…
Risk Analysis | North America | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology