Resources Repository
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GuidelinesPublication 2012Modeling Using Discrete Event Simulation: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-4
This paper reports on consensus-based guidelines on the application of DES in a health care …
This paper reports on consensus-based guidelines on the application of DES in a health care setting, covering the range of issues to which DES can be applied. Discrete event simulation (DES) is a form of computer-based modeling that provides an intuitive and flexible approach to representing complex systems. The article works through the different stages of the modeling process: structural development, parameter estimation, model implementation, model analysis, and representation and reporting. Recommendations are made for…
Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine -
GuidelinesPublication 2012Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-6
This paper discusses methods for the reporting of uncertainty, both in terms of deterministic sensitivity …
This paper discusses methods for the reporting of uncertainty, both in terms of deterministic sensitivity analysis techniques and probabilistic methods. Stochastic (first-order) uncertainty is distinguished from both parameter (second-order) uncertainty and from heterogeneity, with structural uncertainty relating to the model itself forming another level of uncertainty. The article describes the process of estimating model inputs, whether these are point estimates or distributions. It also explores the link between parameter uncertainty, decision uncertainty, and value-of-information analysis.…
Value of Information | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2012Modeling the Risks and Benefits of Depression Treatment for Children and Young Adults
This article, published in Value in Health, presents a discrete event simulation model to quantify …
This article, published in Value in Health, presents a discrete event simulation model to quantify the trade-offs with respect to clinical benefits and the risk of fatal and non-fatal suicidal behavior of alternative treatment strategies for a U.S. pediatric population with major depressive disorder. The authors evaluate treatment strategies including: selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), and a combination of both. The results show that the use of SSRIs is associated with…
Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Technology Assessment | Mental Health | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2012Value of Family Planning for Improving Maternal Health in Rural Afghanistan
This article, published in the Afghanistan Journal of Public Health, uses a model designed to …
This article, published in the Afghanistan Journal of Public Health, uses a model designed to simulate the natural history of pregnancy and associated maternal mortality and morbidity contextualized to Afghanistan to assess the cost-effectiveness of family planning in the rural Maywand district of Kandahar. Using total fertility rate, pregnancy-related complications, maternal mortality ratio, lifetime risk of maternal death, and proportionate mortality ratio as outcomes, the model finds that increasing family planning from 8% to 30-50% could…
Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2012Health and Economic Outcomes of Interventions to Reduce Pregnancy-Related Mortality in Nigeria
This paper examines the cost-effectiveness and impact of individual and integrated packages of interventions aimed …
This paper examines the cost-effectiveness and impact of individual and integrated packages of interventions aimed to reduce maternal mortality in Nigeria, a country with extremely high maternal mortality rates. Using a previously validated model adapted to the Nigerian context, the study finds that an increase of access to family planning is the most effective individual strategy, which not only reduces pregnancy-related mortality but also proves to be economically efficient. However, relying solely on family planning…
Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ReviewPublication 2011Dynamic Microsimulation Models for Health Outcomes: A Review
This review article presents an overview of microsimulation modeling, focusing on the development and application …
This review article presents an overview of microsimulation modeling, focusing on the development and application of these models for health policy questions. Microsimulation models for health outcomes simulate individual event histories associated with key components of a disease process; these simulated life histories can be aggregated to estimate population-level effects of treatment on disease outcomes and the comparative effectiveness of treatments. The authors argue that methodological improvements in modeling approaches have been slowed by the…
Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2010Health and Economic Impact of Rotavirus Vaccination in GAVI-Eligible Countries
Rotavirus infection is responsible for about 500,000 deaths annually, and the disease burden is disproportionately …
Rotavirus infection is responsible for about 500,000 deaths annually, and the disease burden is disproportionately borne by children in low-income countries. Motivated by the global recommendation by the WHO that all countries include infant rotavirus vaccination in their national immunization programs, the objective of this analysis was to provide information on the expected health, economic and financial consequences of rotavirus vaccines in the 72 GAVI support-eligible countries. The authors synthesized population-level data from various sources (primarily from…
Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2009Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Pregnancy Termination Strategies in Mexico City
This study evaluated the health and economic outcomes associated with three alternative first-trimester abortion techniques …
This study evaluated the health and economic outcomes associated with three alternative first-trimester abortion techniques in Mexico City using a computer-based model to simulate induced abortion and its potential complications. Strategies included alternative modalities for first-trimester pregnancy termination: hospital-based dilatation and curettage (D&C), hospital-based manual vacuum aspiration (MVA), clinic-based MVA and medical abortion using vaginal misoprostol. Outcomes included number of complications, lifetime costs, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life expectancy. Assuming all options were equally available,…
Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2008Mathematical Models of Cervical Cancer Prevention in Latin America and the Caribbean
This article reports on a model-based approach estimated averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted …
This article reports on a model-based approach estimated averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/DALY averted) for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of young adolescent girls using population and epidemiologic data for 33 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The authors found that an absolute reduction in lifetime cancer risk varied between countries, depending on incidence, proportion attributable to HPV-16 and 18, and population age-structure; for…
Costing Methods | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Latin America & Caribbean