Resources Repository
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Resource PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2018Resource Pack: Cervical Cancer Models
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, is a collection of …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, is a collection of models of HPV-related cervical cancer, differing in design, structure and features based on analytic objectives. In many ways, HPV and its related diseases represent a prototypical public health problem given the communicable and non-communicable nature of disease, opportunities for intervention along the entire disease spectrum (e.g., primary and secondary prevention, diagnosis, treatment), the varied ages at which interventions are targeted…
Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
GuidelinesPublication 2012Modeling Good Research Practices - Overview: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-1
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the …
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), provides the overarching recommendations, and discusses future work that is needed. The audience for these papers includes anyone who build models, stakeholders who utilize their results, and those concerned with the use of models to support decision making. This article is part 1 of…
Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Value of Information | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Transmission | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
Resource PortalWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2024MIDAS
MIDAS is a collaborative network of research scientists who use computational, statistical and mathematical models …
MIDAS is a collaborative network of research scientists who use computational, statistical and mathematical models to understand infectious disease dynamics and thereby assist the nation to prepare for, detect and respond to infectious disease threats. Midas focuses on research topics such as: Dynamics of emergence and spread of pathogens; Identification and surveillance of infectious diseases; Effectiveness and consequences of intervention strategies; Host/pathogen interactions; Ecological, climatic, economic and evolutionary dimensions of infectious diseases; The roles of behavior and behavioral adaptation in…
Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Risk Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Conceptual Mapping | Quantitative Literacy -
ReportPublication 2016Modeling to Inform Strategies to Improve Population Health
This workshop report summarizes a workshop convened by the Institute of Medicine to explore the potential …
This workshop report summarizes a workshop convened by the Institute of Medicine to explore the potential uses of simulation and other types of modeling for improving health. Participants worked to identify how modeling could inform population health decision making (selecting and refining potential strategies, ranging from interventions to investments) based on lessons learned from models that have been, or have not been, used successfully, opportunities and barriers to incorporating models into decision making, and data needs and…
Microsimulation | Environmental Health | Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Decision Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ReviewPublication 2016Choosing an Epidemiological Model Structure for Economic Evaluation
This review presents a taxonomy of epidemiological model structures and applies it to the economic …
This review presents a taxonomy of epidemiological model structures and applies it to the economic evaluation of public health interventions for non-communicable diseases. Growing pressures on health services and on social care have led to a greater need for prevention of chronic diseases. In order for decision makers to make informed judgements about how to best spend finite public health resources, they must be able to quantify the anticipated costs, benefits, and opportunity costs of…
Microsimulation | Environmental Health | Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Health Systems | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine