Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2019Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories …
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI) in the United States. Self-reported BMI from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias. Multinomial regressions were then fitted for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI <25), overweight (25 to…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Social Determinants -
ArticlePublication 2022Duration & Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in Hepatitis C Patients After Viral Eradication
This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients cured …
This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients cured of hepatitis C virus (HCV) using oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). A microsimulation model of HCC natural history in individuals with HCV-related advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis post-DAAs was developed, integrating data on HCC incidence, tumor progression, surveillance adherence, and health state costs/utilities. Biannual ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein surveillance were compared to no surveillance over varying durations (5 years to lifetime). Results indicate…
Microsimulation | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2022Cost-Effectiveness of Screening for Atrial Fibrillation Using Wearable Devices
This economic evaluation assesses the cost-effectiveness of atrial fibrillation (AF) screening strategies, particularly utilizing wrist-worn …
This economic evaluation assesses the cost-effectiveness of atrial fibrillation (AF) screening strategies, particularly utilizing wrist-worn wearable devices, to prevent strokes. Conducted using a microsimulation decision-analytic model, the study spans from September 8, 2020, to May 23, 2022, incorporating 30 million simulated individuals representative of the US population aged 65 years or older. Eight screening strategies, including six employing wrist-worn devices and two using traditional methods, were compared against no screening. Results indicate that all wrist-worn…
Microsimulation | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2013Nutritional Policy Changes in SNAP: A Microsimulation and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
This analysis estimated the health effects and cost-effectiveness of banning or taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) …
This analysis estimated the health effects and cost-effectiveness of banning or taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) or subsidizing fruits and vegetables purchased with SNAP. The target population was adults in the U.S. and the time horizon was 10 years. Results showed that banning SSB purchases using SNAP benefits would be expected to avert 510,000 diabetes person-years and 52,000 deaths from MIs and strokes over the next decade, with a savings of $2900 per QALY saved. A…
Microsimulation | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2019Cost-Effectiveness of U.S. National SSB Tax with a Multistakeholder Approach: Who Pays and Who Benefits
This analysis estimated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of a national penny-per-ounce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) …
This analysis estimated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of a national penny-per-ounce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, overall and with stratified costs and benefits for nine distinct stakeholder groups. A microsimulation model (CVD PREDICT) was used to estimate cardiovascular disease reductions, quality-adjusted life years gained, and cost-effectiveness for U.S. adults aged 35 to 85 years, evaluating full and partial consumer price pass-through. Results showed that from both a health care and societal perspective, the SSB tax was…
Microsimulation | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2019Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of SSB Taxes for Reducing Cancer Burden in the U.S.
This analysis evaluated the health outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of a national sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) …
This analysis evaluated the health outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of a national sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax policy for reducing obesity-related cancer in the U.S. A probabilistic cohort state-transition model, the Diet Cancer Outcome Model (DiCOM), was used to project the effect of a national $0.01 per ounce SSB excise tax on 13 obesity-associated cancers among U.S. adults age 20 and older over their lifetime. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using both government affordability and societal perspectives. Results showed…
Microsimulation | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2018Cost-Effectiveness of Financial Incentives and Disincentives for Improving Food Purchases and Health through SNAP
This analysis estimated the health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of food incentives, disincentives, or restrictions …
This analysis estimated the health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of food incentives, disincentives, or restrictions in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). A microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT) was used to compare three policy interventions: (1) a 30% incentive for fruits and vegetables (F&V), (2) a 30% F&V incentive with a restriction of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), and (3) a broader incentive/disincentive program for multiple foods that also preserves choice (SNAP-plus). From a societal perspective, all three scenarios…
Microsimulation | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2018Should We Treat Acute Hepatitis C? A Decision and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
This study examines the potential benefits of treating acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection compared …
This study examines the potential benefits of treating acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection compared to deferring treatment until the chronic phase, utilizing a microsimulation model. By projecting long-term outcomes such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs, the analysis evaluates the cost-effectiveness of initiating therapy during the acute phase. Results indicate that treating acute HCV increases QALYs by 0.02 and costs by $483 per patient not at risk of transmitting HCV, yielding an incremental…
Microsimulation | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2017Simulation of Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood
The authors developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age …
The authors developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age of 35 years for the current population of children in the United States. They used pooled height and weight data from five nationally representative longitudinal studies totaling 176,720 observations from 41,567 children and adults to simulate growth trajectories across the life course adjusted for secular trends. Using 1,000 virtual populations of 1 million children through the age of 19 years, representative of the…
Microsimulation | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine