Resources Repository
-
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2021Resource Pack: Role of Heuristics in Avalanche Education
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals …
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals need to understand and be comfortable with the language of probability, as well as appreciate the cognitive biases that can come into play in the context of decision making. This collection includes articles that range from early attempts to identify “heuristic traps,” based on a retrospective analysis of avalanche accidents in the United States more than 20 years ago, to…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Psychology | Injuries/Accidents | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership -
ArticlePublication 2020Online Competition between Pro- and Anti-Vaccination Views
Distrust in scientific expertise is dangerous. Opposition to vaccination with a future vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, …
Distrust in scientific expertise is dangerous. Opposition to vaccination with a future vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the causal agent of COVID-19, for example, could amplify outbreaks as happened for measles in 2019. Homemade remedies and falsehoods are being shared widely on the Internet, as well as dismissals of expert advice. There is a lack of understanding about how this distrust evolves at the system level. Authors provide a map of the contention surrounding vaccines that has…
Decision Psychology | Health Systems | Preferences/Values | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
NewsPublication 2020Managing the COVID-19 Infodemic: Promoting Healthy Behaviors and Mitigating the Harm from Misinformation and Disinformation
The COVID-19 pandemic is the first in history in which technology and social media are …
The COVID-19 pandemic is the first in history in which technology and social media are being used on a massive scale to keep people safe, informed, productive, and connected. At the same time, the technology we rely on to keep connected and informed enables and amplifies an infodemic that continues to undermine the global response and jeopardizes measures to control the pandemic. This description was adapted from the joint statement.
Decision Psychology | Health Systems | Preferences/Values | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Global Governance | Culture/Society | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
EditorialPublication 2020Waiting for Certainty on COVID-19 Antibody Tests — At What Cost?
This perspective anticipates the availability of serologic antibody testing and considers its potential usefulness in mitigation …
This perspective anticipates the availability of serologic antibody testing and considers its potential usefulness in mitigation policy to reduce COVID-19 transmission. For example: Could we screen for serologic antibodies as a proxy for possible immunity and identify people who could return to the workplace with less severe mitigation measures? The authors acknowledge the uncertainties raised by many policy actors, including the WHO, such as, "Do antibodies confer immunity and, if so, for how long? How accurate is…
Probability/Bayes | Health Systems | Test Performance | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Policy Makers, the International Community and the Population: Case Study on HIV/AIDS
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. …
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time." The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost…
Decision Psychology | Health Systems | Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
Teaching PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2018Teaching Pack: Teaching Prototypes for Decision Analysis
These videos, developed by Professor Myriam Hunink during an immersion residency at the Center for …
These videos, developed by Professor Myriam Hunink during an immersion residency at the Center for Health Decision Science (CHDS) Media Hub, reflect experiments to augment brick and mortar teaching with multimedia materials that emphasize visualization of basic concepts. The first video introduces decision making under uncertainty, and illustrates the use of probability and odds to quantitatively express uncertainty. The second and third videos introduce probability revision visually and analytically, showing how an initial probability is…
Probability/Bayes | Health Systems | Test Performance | Value of Information | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America | Europe | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2016DNA Evidence: Case Study in Probabilities
This educational module on DNA evidence presents trial testimony, exhibits, and opinions in a case …
This educational module on DNA evidence presents trial testimony, exhibits, and opinions in a case in which federal courts at every level discerned “inaccuracies” in the testimony of a leading expert about probabilities associated with the DNA evidence. By embedding these legal materials in background explanations, critical questions, and short problems, the module supports self-study and class discussions that together can elucidate key principles in scientific reasoning and quantitative analysis and that can help students…
Probability/Bayes | Injuries/Accidents | Test Performance | Risk Analysis | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
ReportPublication 2015Improving Diagnosis in Health Care
Getting the right diagnosis is a key aspect of health care - it provides an …
Getting the right diagnosis is a key aspect of health care - it provides an explanation of a patient's health problem and informs subsequent health care decisions. The diagnostic process is a complex, collaborative activity that involves clinical reasoning and information gathering to determine a patient's health problem. This report, Improving Diagnosis in Health Care, explains that diagnostic errors-inaccurate or delayed diagnoses-persist throughout all settings of care and continue to harm an unacceptable number of patients.…
Probability/Bayes | Health Systems | Health Outcomes | Test Performance | Value of Information | Health/Medicine | North America -
BookPublication 2014Decision Making in Health and Medicine: Integrating Evidence and Values
Decision making in health care involves consideration of a complex set of diagnostic, therapeutic and …
Decision making in health care involves consideration of a complex set of diagnostic, therapeutic and prognostic uncertainties. Medical therapies have side effects, surgical interventions may lead to complications, and diagnostic tests can produce misleading results. Furthermore, patient values and service costs must be considered. Decisions in clinical and health policy require careful weighing of risks and benefits and are commonly a trade-off of competing objectives: maximizing quality of life vs maximizing life expectancy vs minimizing…
Probability/Bayes | Health Systems | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Test Performance | Value of Information | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | North America | Europe | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy