Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2019Estimating the Total Incidence of Global Childhood Cancer: A Simulation-Based Analysis
This study describes the development of a microsimulation model to simulate childhood cancer incidence for …
This study describes the development of a microsimulation model to simulate childhood cancer incidence for 200 countries/territories, taking into account trends in population growth and urbanicity, geographical variation in cancer incidence, and health system barriers to access and referral that contribute to underdiagnosis. The model was calibrated to publicly available cancer registry data, and the total incidence of childhood cancer (diagnosed and undiagnosed) was estimated for each country in 2015 and projections made to 2030.…
Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Child/Nutrition | Microsimulation | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2019Global Childhood Cancer Survival Estimates and Priority-Setting: A Simulation-Based Analysis
This modelling study provides estimates of global childhood cancer survival, accounting for the impact of …
This modelling study provides estimates of global childhood cancer survival, accounting for the impact of multiple factors that affect cancer outcomes in children. The authors developed a microsimulation model to simulate childhood cancer survival for 200 countries/territories, accounting for clinical and epidemiologic factors, including country-specific treatment variables, such as availability of chemotherapy, radiation, and surgery, and calibrated the model to empirical data from the CONCORD-2 and CONCORD-3 studies using an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach. The…
Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Child/Nutrition | Priority Setting/Ethics | Microsimulation | Clinical Care | Global -
ArticlePublication 2019Cost-Effectiveness of Community-Based Childhood Obesity Prevention Interventions in Australia
This study examined the cost-effectiveness of community-based obesity prevention interventions (CBIs) consisting of strategies to …
This study examined the cost-effectiveness of community-based obesity prevention interventions (CBIs) consisting of strategies to promote healthy eating and physical activity for Australian children aged between 5-18 years. A multiple cohort Markov model that simulates diseases associated with overweight and obesity was used to estimate the health benefits, measured as health-adjusted life years (HALYs) and healthcare-related cost offsets from diseases averted due to exposure to the intervention. Health and cost outcomes were estimated over the…
Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Child/Nutrition | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine | Oceania -
ArticlePublication 2017Simulation of Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood
The authors developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age …
The authors developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age of 35 years for the current population of children in the United States. They used pooled height and weight data from five nationally representative longitudinal studies totaling 176,720 observations from 41,567 children and adults to simulate growth trajectories across the life course adjusted for secular trends. Using 1,000 virtual populations of 1 million children through the age of 19 years, representative of the…
Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Child/Nutrition | Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Benefit and Harm of Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment: Derivation and Validation of Risk Models Using Data from the Sprint and Accord Trials
Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some …
Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some serious adverse events. The authors sought to create risk calculators to estimate individual patients’ chances of benefit and harm from intensive treatment. They developed statistical models of cardiovascular events and serious adverse events from individual participant data from the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) of intensive blood pressure treatment (N = 9,069 with complete covariate data) and validated them…
Evidence Synthesis | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Probability/Bayes -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimated Economic Impact of Vaccinations in 73 LMIC, 2001-2020
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 …
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The authors used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In…
Dynamic Transmission | Health Outcomes | Child/Nutrition | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Reduced Burden of Childhood Diarrheal Diseases through Increased Access to Water and Sanitation in India: Modeling Analysis
This analysis estimates the health and economic benefits of scaling up the coverage of piped …
This analysis estimates the health and economic benefits of scaling up the coverage of piped water and improved sanitation to a near-universal 95% level among Indian households. The authors used an agent-based microsimulation platform, IndiaSim, to model disease progression and individual healthcare-seeking behavior in India, and use ECEA to estimate health and economic outcomes over time. They found that scaling up access to piped water and improved sanitation could avert 43,352 diarrheal episodes and 68…
Health Outcomes | Environmental Health | Child/Nutrition | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Social Determinants | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Quality Improvement for Cardiovascular Disease Care in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review
The majority of global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden falls on people living in low- and …
The majority of global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden falls on people living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As part of the Disease Control Priorities Three (DCP3) Study efforts addressing quality improvement, the authors reviewed and summarized currently available evidence on interventions to improve quality of clinic-based CVD prevention and management in LMICs. Using a narrative review of published comparative clinical trials that evaluated efficacy or effectiveness of clinic-based CVD prevention and management quality improvement…
Evidence Synthesis | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Redrawing the U.S. Obesity Landscape: State-Specific Adult Obesity Prevalence
State-level estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underestimate the obesity epidemic …
State-level estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underestimate the obesity epidemic because they use self-reported height and weight. This study described a novel bias-correction method and produced corrected state-level estimates of obesity and severe obesity. Using non-parametric statistical matching, the authors adjusted self-reported data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2013 (n = 386,795) using measured data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n = 16,924).…
Evidence Synthesis | Health Outcomes | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine | North America