Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2020New Fronts in the War on Misinformation
The countless false claims that have spread alongside the novel coronavirus – inaccurate advice about …
The countless false claims that have spread alongside the novel coronavirus – inaccurate advice about how to prevent the virus, for example, and conspiracy theories about its origins – are just the latest manifestation of an ongoing problem: the online proliferation of misinformation about science and health. The National Academies hosted and helped organize three events focused on countering misinformation: The MisinfoCon conference, a Wikipedia Edit-a-thon, and a meeting to explore ways to expand successful…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Education/Labor | Government/Law | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Bayes' Theorem, COVID-19, and Screening Tests
This article reviews the implications of increased testing for COVID-19 using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain …
This article reviews the implications of increased testing for COVID-19 using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) through the application of Bayes’ Theorem for three hypothetical, stylized case scenarios. The scenarios involve three patients with a low, moderate, and high pre-test probability of COVID-19 infection. The category of low probability would include "asymptomatic individuals in a presumed low prevalence environment" and might vary from 10 to 20%. The category of moderate probability would include "individuals…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care -
Tools/ModelsInteractive, Teaching Resource 2020Interactive Graphic: Interpreting a COVID-19 Test Result
Currently, the most common diagnostic test for COVID-19 relies on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction …
Currently, the most common diagnostic test for COVID-19 relies on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), and most often uses samples obtained from the respiratory tract by nasopharyngeal swab. This interactive graphic demonstrates the influence of the prior probability of COVID-19, the test sensitivity (i.e., the probability of a positive test conditional on disease presence), and the test specificity (i.e., the probability of a negative test conditional on disease absence) on the post-test probability of…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Science/Technology | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2020Interpreting COVID-19 Test Results: A Bayesian Approach
This article considers the following question with respect to interpreting the results of polymerase chain reaction …
This article considers the following question with respect to interpreting the results of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays from nasal and pharyngeal swabs for COVID-19 to inform clinical decision making: "While a positive result in an acutely ill patient is straightforward, how should physicians interpret negative tests in patients with suspected COVID-19 infection?" Using an assumption of near-perfect specificity of PCR assays for COVID-19, the authors acknowledge the uncertainty of test sensitivity. They consider two clinical scenarios…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Science/Technology | Global -
Resource PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2018Resource Pack: Cervical Cancer Models
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, is a collection of …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, is a collection of models of HPV-related cervical cancer, differing in design, structure and features based on analytic objectives. In many ways, HPV and its related diseases represent a prototypical public health problem given the communicable and non-communicable nature of disease, opportunities for intervention along the entire disease spectrum (e.g., primary and secondary prevention, diagnosis, treatment), the varied ages at which interventions are targeted…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Policy Makers, the International Community and the Population: Case Study on HIV/AIDS
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. …
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time." The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost…
Mathematical Models | Decision Psychology | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Global -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2017Translating Science Into Policy: The Role of Decision Science
This module introduces the basic techniques of “decision science” that are used in policy making. …
This module introduces the basic techniques of “decision science” that are used in policy making. The materials are mainly prescriptive, focusing on how to make good decisions, but also include examples of the systematic ways that people make poor decisions. The module: (1) surveys the meanings of utility; (2) examines decision making in conditions where risk is not an issue; (3) examines decision making in conditions where risk is an issue because the likelihood of…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Decision Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Science/Technology | Global | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Policy Translation -
OrganizationWeb Portal 2024Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER)
ICER is a non-profit organization that evaluates evidence on a range of topics including the value …
ICER is a non-profit organization that evaluates evidence on a range of topics including the value of medical tests, treatments and delivery system innovations and moves that evidence into action to improve the health care system. To accomplish this goal ICER performs analyses on effectiveness and costs, supports specific programs, and develops reports using innovative methods that make it easier to translate evidence into decisions that can align efforts to use evidence to drive improvements in both…
Preferences/Values | Value of Information | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Evidence Synthesis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mental Health | Health Systems | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Science/Technology | North America | Europe -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2017Resource Pack: CEA Herpes Zoster Vaccine
This resource pack on the cost-effectiveness of herpes zoster vaccination was curated to support Dr. …
This resource pack on the cost-effectiveness of herpes zoster vaccination was curated to support Dr. Lisa Prosser's seminar on November 9, 2017 at the Center for Health Decision Science. Dr. Prosser discussed an economic evaluation of vaccination against herpes zoster. Herpes zoster—more commonly known as shingles—presents a major burden for older Americans but, until recently, the only available vaccine (Zoster Vaccine Live, ZVL) was relatively ineffective past 10 years. A recently approved vaccine–herpes zoster subunit…
Preferences/Values | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Clinical Care | Culture/Society | Science/Technology | North America | Europe