Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Getting it Right When Budgets are Tight: Prioritizing Responses to HIV Epidemics
Prioritizing investments across health interventions is complicated by the nonlinear relationship between intervention coverage and …
Prioritizing investments across health interventions is complicated by the nonlinear relationship between intervention coverage and epidemiological outcomes. It can be difficult for countries to know which interventions to prioritize for greatest epidemiological impact, particularly when budgets are uncertain.The authors examined four case studies of HIV epidemics in diverse settings, each with different characteristics. These case studies were based on public data available for Belarus, Peru, Togo, and Myanmar. The Optima HIV model and software package…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Latin America & Caribbean | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016Extended CEA: Diarrhea and Pneumonia in Ethiopia
This chapter examines universal public finance of the prevention and treatment of pneumonia and diarrhea …
This chapter examines universal public finance of the prevention and treatment of pneumonia and diarrhea in Ethiopia, with a focus on children under age five years. This extended cost-effectiveness analysis examines benefits by income quintile so that policy makers can better understand how each package affects different segments of the population and permits the incorporation of financial risk protection in the economic evaluation of health policies - both critical elements of universal health coverage.
Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Social Determinants | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2015Extended Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Treatment and Prevention of Diarrhoea in Ethiopia
This article, published in BMJ Open, aims to illustrate the size and distribution of benefits …
This article, published in BMJ Open, aims to illustrate the size and distribution of benefits due to the treatment and prevention of diarrhoea (i.e., rotavirus vaccination) in Ethiopia. The authors use an economic model to examine the impacts of universal public finance (UPF) of diarrhoeal treatment alone, as opposed to diarrhoeal treatment along with rotavirus vaccination using extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA). The study finds that diarrhoeal treatment paired with rotavirus vaccination is more cost effective…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Social Determinants | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2013Validation and Calibration of a Simulation Model of Pediatric HIV Infection
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of …
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model framework. This CEPAC-Pediatric model was then validated by varying CD4 data and comparing the corresponding model-generated survival curves to empirical survival curves obtained from the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). The model was calibrated to other African countries by systematically varying immunologic and HIV mortality-related input parameters. In the calibration analyses, the model-generated…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2013Public Finance of Rotavirus Vaccination in India and Ethiopia: Extended CEA
This study uses extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate a hypothetical publicly financed program for …
This study uses extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate a hypothetical publicly financed program for rotavirus vaccination in India and Ethiopia. The authors measured program impact on: (1) averted rotavirus deaths; (2) reduction in household expenditures; (3) financial risk protection; and (4) distributional consequences across the country’s wealth strata. In India and Ethiopia, the program was predicted to decrease rotavirus deaths substantially, and effectively provide financial risk protection among the poor, while also reducing household…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Social Determinants | Culture/Society | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2011Health and Economic Impact of HPV 16/18 Vaccination and Cervical Cancer Screening in Eastern Africa
In this article the authors use epidemiologic data from Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe …
In this article the authors use epidemiologic data from Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe to develop models of HPV-related infection and disease. For each country, they assessed HPV vaccination of girls before age 12 followed by screening with HPV DNA testing once, twice, or three times per lifetime (at ages 35, 40, 45). For women over age 30, they assessed only screening (with HPV DNA testing up to three times per lifetime or VIA…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2010Health and Economic Impact of Rotavirus Vaccination in GAVI-Eligible Countries
Rotavirus infection is responsible for about 500,000 deaths annually, and the disease burden is disproportionately …
Rotavirus infection is responsible for about 500,000 deaths annually, and the disease burden is disproportionately borne by children in low-income countries. Motivated by the global recommendation by the WHO that all countries include infant rotavirus vaccination in their national immunization programs, the objective of this analysis was to provide information on the expected health, economic and financial consequences of rotavirus vaccines in the 72 GAVI support-eligible countries. The authors synthesized population-level data from various sources (primarily from…
Health Outcomes | Latin America & Caribbean | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2008Mathematical Models of Cervical Cancer Prevention in Latin America and the Caribbean
This article reports on a model-based approach estimated averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted …
This article reports on a model-based approach estimated averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/DALY averted) for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of young adolescent girls using population and epidemiologic data for 33 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The authors found that an absolute reduction in lifetime cancer risk varied between countries, depending on incidence, proportion attributable to HPV-16 and 18, and population age-structure; for…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Latin America & Caribbean | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology