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Resources Repository
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ToolInteractive 2020COVID-19 Antibody Tests: Calculator for Interpreting Test Results
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. This interactive calculator, linked to the article …
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. This interactive calculator, linked to the article below* on antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2 virus, allows users to vary the prior probability of infection, the sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing, and the specificity of SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing. Key points made in the article accompanying the interactive include: (1) antibody testing is likely to be most useful 2 weeks after infection, (2) sensitivity and specificity will vary over time and…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Technology Assessment | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
EditorialPublication 2020Waiting for Certainty on COVID-19 Antibody Tests — At What Cost?
This perspective anticipates the availability of serologic antibody testing and considers its potential usefulness in mitigation …
This perspective anticipates the availability of serologic antibody testing and considers its potential usefulness in mitigation policy to reduce COVID-19 transmission. For example: Could we screen for serologic antibodies as a proxy for possible immunity and identify people who could return to the workplace with less severe mitigation measures? The authors acknowledge the uncertainties raised by many policy actors, including the WHO, such as, "Do antibodies confer immunity and, if so, for how long? How accurate is…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Technology Assessment | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020New Fronts in the War on Misinformation
The countless false claims that have spread alongside the novel coronavirus – inaccurate advice about …
The countless false claims that have spread alongside the novel coronavirus – inaccurate advice about how to prevent the virus, for example, and conspiracy theories about its origins – are just the latest manifestation of an ongoing problem: the online proliferation of misinformation about science and health. The National Academies hosted and helped organize three events focused on countering misinformation: The MisinfoCon conference, a Wikipedia Edit-a-thon, and a meeting to explore ways to expand successful…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Education/Labor | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Bayes' Theorem, COVID-19, and Screening Tests
This article reviews the implications of increased testing for COVID-19 using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain …
This article reviews the implications of increased testing for COVID-19 using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) through the application of Bayes’ Theorem for three hypothetical, stylized case scenarios. The scenarios involve three patients with a low, moderate, and high pre-test probability of COVID-19 infection. The category of low probability would include "asymptomatic individuals in a presumed low prevalence environment" and might vary from 10 to 20%. The category of moderate probability would include "individuals…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
Tools/ModelsInteractive, Teaching Resource 2020Interactive Graphic: Interpreting a COVID-19 Test Result
Currently, the most common diagnostic test for COVID-19 relies on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction …
Currently, the most common diagnostic test for COVID-19 relies on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), and most often uses samples obtained from the respiratory tract by nasopharyngeal swab. This interactive graphic demonstrates the influence of the prior probability of COVID-19, the test sensitivity (i.e., the probability of a positive test conditional on disease presence), and the test specificity (i.e., the probability of a negative test conditional on disease absence) on the post-test probability of…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2020Interpreting COVID-19 Test Results: A Bayesian Approach
This article considers the following question with respect to interpreting the results of polymerase chain reaction …
This article considers the following question with respect to interpreting the results of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays from nasal and pharyngeal swabs for COVID-19 to inform clinical decision making: "While a positive result in an acutely ill patient is straightforward, how should physicians interpret negative tests in patients with suspected COVID-19 infection?" Using an assumption of near-perfect specificity of PCR assays for COVID-19, the authors acknowledge the uncertainty of test sensitivity. They consider two clinical scenarios…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Catastrophic Costs Potentially Averted by TB Control in India and South Africa
This study estimated the reduction in tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs with an aggressive expansion of tuberculosis …
This study estimated the reduction in tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs with an aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services in India and South Africa from 2016 to 2035, in line with the End TB Strategy. The authors investigated three intervention scenarios: improved treatment of drug-sensitive tuberculosis; improved treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; and expansion of access to tuberculosis care through intensified case finding (South Africa only). In India and South Africa, improvements in treatment for drug-sensitive and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2019Health and Financial Benefits of Averting Malaria in Zambia: An ECEA
This study used the extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to examine impact of the hypothetical rollout …
This study used the extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to examine impact of the hypothetical rollout of the malaria vaccine RTS,S/AS01 in Zambia on the health benefits of children under five, and financial benefits on their households. The authors assumed a three-dose vaccination schedule (over 6-9 months), and vaccine cost of US$5 per dose. To assess vaccine impact, for each income quintile, they computed the number of under-five malaria deaths prevented, the household out-of-pocket (OOP) malaria-related…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2018Poverty Reduction & Equity Benefits of Measles, Rotavirus and Pneumococcal Vaccines in LMICs
This study uses the extended cost effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate the impact of immunization …
This study uses the extended cost effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate the impact of immunization against measles, severe pneumococcal disease and severe rotavirus for birth cohorts vaccinated over 2016–2030 for three scenarios in 41 Gavi-eligible countries: no immunization, current immunization coverage forecasts and the current immunization coverage enhanced with funding support. Following the distribution of the cases by socioeconomic group, the study found that the number of catastrophic health costs (CHC) cases attributable to measles,…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine | Global