Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2007Multiparameter Calibration of a Natural History Model of Cervical Cancer
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model …
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer. Using primary epidemiologic data from a longitudinal study of women in Brazil, a plausible range for each input parameter was identified that would produce model output within the 95% confidence intervals of the data. The authors then performed a simultaneous search over all input parameters to identify parameter sets that produced output consistent…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2002Empirically Calibrated Model of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in the United States
This article presents an epidemiologic model of hepatitis C in the United States. The authors …
This article presents an epidemiologic model of hepatitis C in the United States. The authors used empirical calibration of model parameters to gain insights into uncertainty in the natural history of hepatitis C and to improve future projections. The authors identified model inputs by way of a systematic review. Model simulations were conducted and model predictions were compared with epidemiologic data on infection prevalence and mortality from liver cancer. Goodness-of-fit criteria were used to identify…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
State-Transition | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Decision Theory | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Decision Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Middle East & North Africa -
ArticlePublication 2018Equity Impact Vaccines May Have on Averting Deaths and Medical Impoverishment
In this analysis, authors estimated the number of deaths averted and the number of cases …
In this analysis, authors estimated the number of deaths averted and the number of cases of medical impoverishment averted of ten antigens and their corresponding vaccines across income quintiles for forty-one low- and middle-income countries. The study found that vaccines administered between 2016 and 2030 would prevent 36 million deaths. Vaccines will have the greatest impact on reducing cases of poverty caused by hepatitis B, helping an estimated 14 million people avoid medical impoverishment. An…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Global Governance | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Economics/Finance | Science/Technology | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Asia & Pacific -
ArticleWeb Portal 2017PLoS Collection: Prevention, Diagnosis and Treatment of Sexually Transmitted Infections
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than one million new sexually transmitted …
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than one million new sexually transmitted infections (STIs) occur each day, incurring a very substantial burden of morbidity, mortality and additional infections. The pathogens responsible include bacteria, parasites and viruses, and intensive research is needed to address the substantial barriers to diagnosis and treatment of STIs, and the behavioral challenges of prevention. This PLOS collection, published in collaboration with WHO, focuses on global policy and systems…
Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimating the Fitness Cost and Benefit of Cefixime Resistance in Neisseria Gonorrhoeae
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more …
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more than half of annual infections occur in men who have sex with men (MSM). As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, an improved understanding is needed of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. The authors developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime-sensitive…
Dynamic Transmission | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Decision Analysis | Risk Analysis | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Cost-Effectiveness of Testing and Treatment for Latent TB
Testing for and treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is among the main strategies to achieve …
Testing for and treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is among the main strategies to achieve TB elimination in the United States. This analysis estimated health outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of LTBI testing and treatment among non-US born residents with and without medical comorbidities (e.g., diabetes, HIV infection, and end-stage renal disease). A decision analytic tree and Markov cohort simulation model was used to compare the following strategies: no testing, tuberculin skin test (TST), interferon gamma release assay…
Microsimulation | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Test Performance | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2016Funding Gap for Immunization Across 94 Low- and Middle-Income Countries
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 …
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 low- and middle-income countries over the five-year period of 2016–2020. Vaccine financing by country governments, GAVI, and other development sources was forecasted for vaccine, supply chain, and service delivery based on an analysis of comprehensive multi-year plans together with a series of scenarios. The authors found that that delivery of full vaccination programs across the 94 countries would result in a total…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Global Governance | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2015Economic Evaluations with Agent-Based Modelling: An Introduction
This tutorial presents the basic concepts and important features of agent-based models, and provides a …
This tutorial presents the basic concepts and important features of agent-based models, and provides a case study of a simple cost effectiveness analysis of screening for an infectious disease. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a relatively new technique, which overcomes some of the limitations of other methods commonly used for economic evaluations. These limitations include linearity, homogeneity and stationarity. Agents in ABMs are autonomous entities, who interact with each other and with the environment. ABMs provide…
Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Conceptual Mapping | Quantitative Literacy