Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2008Development of an Empirically Calibrated Model of Gastric Cancer in Two High-Risk Countries
This paper presents an empirically calibrated mathematical model of gastric cancer and H. pylori in …
This paper presents an empirically calibrated mathematical model of gastric cancer and H. pylori in China and Colombia to provide qualitative insight into the cost-effectiveness of gastric cancer prevention strategies. Despite studies that have established the relationship between Helicobacter pylori and gastric cancer and H. pylori treatment reducing cancer incidence among individuals without preexisting precancerous lesions, screening for H. pylori is still being debated. The authors synthesized…!--?xml:namespace prefix = "o" ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /-->
Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2007Making the Right Decision: Benjamin Franklin in 1736
This paper applies a decision analytic approach to a past decision made by Benjamin Franklin with regard to …
This paper applies a decision analytic approach to a past decision made by Benjamin Franklin with regard to inoculating his son against smallpox. Benjamin Franklin in his autobiography said: “In 1736 I lost one of my sons, a fine boy of four years old, by the smallpox taken in the common way. I long regretted bitterly and still regret that I had not given it to him by inoculation. This I mention for the sake of the parents who…
Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2007Modeling HPV and Cervical Cancer in the U.S. for Analyses of Screening and Vaccination
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty …
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty about the natural history of disease that was used to provide quantitative insight into U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention. The authors developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted…
Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2007Multiparameter Calibration of a Natural History Model of Cervical Cancer
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model …
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer. Using primary epidemiologic data from a longitudinal study of women in Brazil, a plausible range for each input parameter was identified that would produce model output within the 95% confidence intervals of the data. The authors then performed a simultaneous search over all input parameters to identify parameter sets that produced output consistent…
Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2007Mortality-Risk Valuation and Age
This article addresses whether a single value of statistical life (VSL) should be applied to …
This article addresses whether a single value of statistical life (VSL) should be applied to all age groups or whether lower values should be used for the elderly, recognizing that their life expectancies are shorter than those of younger people. Surveys of different age groups' willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality-risk reductions can potentially help resolve this issue. The 36 studies reviewed suggest that the literature is split on whether older people have a lower WTP…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Preferences/Values | Climate/Environment | College | Graduate | Critical Thinking/Analysis -
ReviewPublication 2001Modeling for Health Care and Other Policy Decisions: Uses, Roles and Validity
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making …
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making in health care and other domains. The role of models to support recommendations on the cost-effective use of medical technologies and pharmaceuticals is controversial. At the heart of the controversy is the degree to which experimental or other empirical evidence should be required prior to model use. The authors argue that the controversy stems in part from a misconception that…
Technology Assessment | Policy/Regulation | Priority Setting/Ethics | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2000Valuing Mortality Risk: Theory and Practice
This article discusses the theoretical foundation and empirical methods for estimating the value of a …
This article discusses the theoretical foundation and empirical methods for estimating the value of a statistical life (VSL). VSL is defined by individuals' preferences for small changes in risk and income, and often used by environmental and other economists to measure the monetary value of reduced mortality risk. The article reviews the dependence of VSL on age, income, baseline mortality risk, and latency.
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Preferences/Values | College | Graduate | Critical Thinking/Analysis -
ReviewPublication 1982Decision Analysis: An Overview
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can …
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can and cannot do, why one should care to do this, and how one does it. Keeney describes decision analysis as "a formalization of common sense for decision problems which are too complex for informal use of common sense." He provides a more technical definition also, describing decision analysis as "a philosophy, articulated by a set of logical axioms, and a methodology…
Decision Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Decision Theory | Preferences/Values | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Science/Technology