Resources Repository
-
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Designing an Optimal HIV Programme for South Africa
This 2017 study compares the traditional and a novel method of comparing cost-effectiveness interventions in …
This 2017 study compares the traditional and a novel method of comparing cost-effectiveness interventions in the context of HIV in South Africa, using a modeling approach. The authors argue that the assumptions of a) independence of interventions, and b) linear scale-up effects do not hold because South Africa has a large domestically funded HIV program with highly saturated coverage levels. The authors therefore aim to better allocate resources for HIV interventions in South Africa when…
Operations Research | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Policy Makers, the International Community and the Population: Case Study on HIV/AIDS
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. …
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time." The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost…
Decision Psychology | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2017Translating Science Into Policy: The Role of Decision Science
This module introduces the basic techniques of “decision science” that are used in policy making. …
This module introduces the basic techniques of “decision science” that are used in policy making. The materials are mainly prescriptive, focusing on how to make good decisions, but also include examples of the systematic ways that people make poor decisions. The module: (1) surveys the meanings of utility; (2) examines decision making in conditions where risk is not an issue; (3) examines decision making in conditions where risk is an issue because the likelihood of…
Decision Psychology | Infectious Diseases | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Policy Translation -
OrganizationWeb Portal 2024ISPOR
Founded in 1995 as an international multidisciplinary professional membership society, the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics …
Founded in 1995 as an international multidisciplinary professional membership society, the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) exists to advance the policy, science, and practice of pharmacoeconomics (health economics) and health outcomes research. ISPOR publishes Value in Health, which contains original research articles in the areas of economic evaluation, outcomes research, and conceptual, methodological, and health policy articles. Beyond health economics and outcomes research resources, tools of ISPOR include strategic initiatives, publications, and member…
Operations Research | Infectious Diseases | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Value of Information | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
Resource PortalWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2024MIDAS
MIDAS is a collaborative network of research scientists who use computational, statistical and mathematical models …
MIDAS is a collaborative network of research scientists who use computational, statistical and mathematical models to understand infectious disease dynamics and thereby assist the nation to prepare for, detect and respond to infectious disease threats. Midas focuses on research topics such as: Dynamics of emergence and spread of pathogens; Identification and surveillance of infectious diseases; Effectiveness and consequences of intervention strategies; Host/pathogen interactions; Ecological, climatic, economic and evolutionary dimensions of infectious diseases; The roles of behavior and behavioral adaptation in…
Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Risk Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Conceptual Mapping | Quantitative Literacy -
Lesson/ModuleMultimedia, Teaching Resource 2015Would You Opt for a Life with No Pain?
Imagine if you could plug your brain into a machine that would bring you ultimate …
Imagine if you could plug your brain into a machine that would bring you ultimate pleasure for the rest of your life. The only catch? You have to permanently leave reality behind. Hayley Levitt and Bethany Rickwald explore Robert Nozick’s thought experiment that he called the Experience Machine. This TED-Ed lesson was developed by Hayley Levitt and Bethany Rickwald with animation by Avi Ofer. Available on YouTube. Full lesson available on TED-Ed. This includes the video,…
Decision Psychology | Social Determinants | Preferences/Values | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2015Calibration of Complex Models through Bayesian Evidence Synthesis: A Tutorial
This tutorial demonstrates how to implement a Bayesian synthesis of diverse sources of evidence to …
This tutorial demonstrates how to implement a Bayesian synthesis of diverse sources of evidence to calibrate the parameters of a complex model. To illustrate these methods, the authors demonstrate how a previously developed Markov model for the progression of human papillomavirus (HPV-16) infection was rebuilt in a Bayesian framework. Transition probabilities between states of disease severity are inferred indirectly from cross-sectional observations of prevalence of HPV-16 and HPV-16–related disease by age, cervical cancer incidence, and…
Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases