Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2023Single-Arm Trial Design Estimates Efficacy
Studies to confirm the efficacy of a single HPV vaccine dose, of vaccine durability, and …
Studies to confirm the efficacy of a single HPV vaccine dose, of vaccine durability, and of vaccination modifications are needed, but randomized controlled trials are costly and face logistical and ethical challenges. In this study, the authors demonstrate proof-of-principle that a single-arm design yields valid estimates with similar precision to a randomized controlled trial.
Health Outcomes | Global | Policy/Regulation | Infectious Diseases | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2021COVID-19 Mortality and Self-Imposed Behavior Change/Government Regulations
Countries have adopted different approaches, at different times, to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. Cross-country …
Countries have adopted different approaches, at different times, to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. Cross-country comparison could indicate the relative efficacy of these approaches. This article assesses various nonpharmaceutical interventions, comparing the effects of voluntary behavior change and of changes enforced via official regulations, by examining their impacts on subsequent death rates. Voluntarily reduced mobility, occurring prior to government policies, decreases the percent change in deaths per day by 9.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.5–14.0).…
Health Outcomes | Global | Policy/Regulation | Infectious Diseases -
Working PaperPublication 2018Valuing Nonfatal Health Risk Reductions
This paper explores approaches for valuing nonfatal risk reductions associated with policy choices in low- …
This paper explores approaches for valuing nonfatal risk reductions associated with policy choices in low- and middle-income countries. The approach for valuation ideally would be based on estimates of individuals’ willingness to pay for changes in their own risks. However, high quality valuation research is not available for many nonfatal conditions even in high-income settings. Typically, two approaches are used either alone or in combination as rough proxies. The first involves applying an estimate of…
Health Outcomes | Global | Policy/Regulation | Social Determinants | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Decision Analysis | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Critical Thinking/Analysis -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimating the Fitness Cost and Benefit of Cefixime Resistance in Neisseria Gonorrhoeae
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more …
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more than half of annual infections occur in men who have sex with men (MSM). As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, an improved understanding is needed of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. The authors developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime-sensitive…
Dynamic Transmission | Global | Policy/Regulation | Infectious Diseases | Decision Analysis | Risk Analysis | Health Systems | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Global | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Simulation | Health Systems | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2014Cost-Effectiveness of Female HPV Vaccination in 179 Countries: A PRIME Modelling Study
The authors present a simple generic model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME), …
The authors present a simple generic model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME), used to assess cost-effectiveness and health effects of vaccination of girls against HPV before sexual debut in terms of burden of cervical cancer and mortality. The PRIME models incidence according to proposed vaccine efficacy against HPV 16/18, vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, and HPV type distribution. It assumes lifelong vaccine protection and no changes to other screening programs…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Global | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2011Dynamic Policies for Controlling Spread of Emerging Infections
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control …
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where two types of interventions are assumed to be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. A modeling approach is described for developing dynamic health policies that allow…
Dynamic Transmission | Global | Policy/Regulation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Simulation | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
Working PaperPublication 2024Economic Evaluation Primer
Economic evaluation is a powerful tool, encouraging the systematic collection and assessment of the evidence …
Economic evaluation is a powerful tool, encouraging the systematic collection and assessment of the evidence needed to support sound policy decisions. In low- and middle-income countries, where resources are especially scarce and needs are very great, such decisions are exceptionally difficult. In these settings, economic evaluation can be particularly useful in determining how to best improve health and welfare. Typically, cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is used to prioritize interventions within the health care sector. This approach…
Health Outcomes | Global | Policy/Regulation | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis -
ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Calibration/Validation | Global | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis