Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Transmission | Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Funding Gap for Immunization Across 94 Low- and Middle-Income Countries
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 …
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 low- and middle-income countries over the five-year period of 2016–2020. Vaccine financing by country governments, GAVI, and other development sources was forecasted for vaccine, supply chain, and service delivery based on an analysis of comprehensive multi-year plans together with a series of scenarios. The authors found that that delivery of full vaccination programs across the 94 countries would result in a total…
Costing Methods | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Identifying Cost-Effective Dynamic Policies to Control Epidemics
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. …
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. The dynamic policies aim to select the best current intervention based on accumulating epidemic data and the availability of resources at each decision point. An algorithm is proposed to approximate dynamic policies that optimize the population's net health benefit, a performance measure which accounts for both health and monetary outcomes. The authors further illustrate how dynamic policies can be defined and…
Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis -
ArticlePublication 2016Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection
Given the importance of controlling latent TB infection (LTBI) as part of the End TB …
Given the importance of controlling latent TB infection (LTBI) as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, the authors felt that changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, made it necessary to re-assess the global burden of LTBI. The authors used constructed trends in annual risk in infection to calculate the number and proportions of individuals infected, recently infected, and recently infected with isoniazid (INH)-resistant strains, aggregated…
Evidence Synthesis | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Rotavirus Vaccines Contribute Towards UHC in A Mixed Public–Private Healthcare System
This extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) evaluates the non-health benefits of rotavirus vaccination in Malaysia from …
This extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) evaluates the non-health benefits of rotavirus vaccination in Malaysia from the household’s perspective. The authors found that rotavirus vaccination reduces rotavirus episodes and expenditure substantially and provides financial risk protection to all income groups. Although the rich are paying more out of pocket than the poor by utilizing more expensive healthcare, the poor are paying more in proportion to household income. Poverty reduction benefits are concentrated amongst the poorest two…
Costing Methods | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Social Determinants | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Science/Technology | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016What Determines HIV Prevention Costs at Scale?
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention services for key populations are commonly delivered through NGOs. However, …
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention services for key populations are commonly delivered through NGOs. However, funding for HIV prevention remains scarce, and there are growing calls internationally to improve the efficiency of HIV prevention programmes as a key strategy to reach global HIV targets. To date, there is limited evidence on the determinants of costs of HIV prevention delivered through NGOs, and thus, policymakers have little guidance in how best to design programmes that are…
Costing Methods | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Using Top-Down and Bottom-Up Costing Approaches in LMICs
In the absence of routine cost data collection, estimating the incremental costs of scaling-up novel …
In the absence of routine cost data collection, estimating the incremental costs of scaling-up novel technologies in low-income and middle-income countries is a methodologically challenging and substantial empirical undertaking. Using the example of costing the scale-up of Xpert Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB)/resistance to riframpicin (RIF) in South Africa, the authors estimate costs, by applying two distinct approaches of bottom-up and top-down costing, together with an assessment of processes and capacity. The unit costs measured using the…
Costing Methods | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Challenges of Prioritization
Cost-effectiveness analysis has traditionally been applied primarily to very specific interventions, such as drugs and …
Cost-effectiveness analysis has traditionally been applied primarily to very specific interventions, such as drugs and diagnostics; in addition, the evidence base drawn on for evaluating such interventions is relatively good, given the medical research industry surrounding their testing. However, with increasing success in controlling infectious diseases, many of the health challenges facing countries concern broad threats to health with multiple causes, such as obesity, where the relationship between policy action and health benefit is not…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mental Health | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Extended CEA: Diarrhea and Pneumonia in Ethiopia
This chapter examines universal public finance of the prevention and treatment of pneumonia and diarrhea …
This chapter examines universal public finance of the prevention and treatment of pneumonia and diarrhea in Ethiopia, with a focus on children under age five years. This extended cost-effectiveness analysis examines benefits by income quintile so that policy makers can better understand how each package affects different segments of the population and permits the incorporation of financial risk protection in the economic evaluation of health policies - both critical elements of universal health coverage.
Health Outcomes | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Social Determinants | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Sub-Saharan Africa