Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2014Cost-Effectiveness of Female HPV Vaccination in 179 Countries: A PRIME Modelling Study
The authors present a simple generic model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME), …
The authors present a simple generic model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME), used to assess cost-effectiveness and health effects of vaccination of girls against HPV before sexual debut in terms of burden of cervical cancer and mortality. The PRIME models incidence according to proposed vaccine efficacy against HPV 16/18, vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, and HPV type distribution. It assumes lifelong vaccine protection and no changes to other screening programs…
Calibration/Validation | Middle East & North Africa | Health Systems | Chronic Disease/Risk | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Global | Sub-Saharan Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2008Health and Economic Implications of HPV Vaccination in the U.S.
This article reports on a study using models of HPV-16 and HPV-18 transmission and cervical …
This article reports on a study using models of HPV-16 and HPV-18 transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to compare the health and economic outcomes of vaccinating preadolescent girls in the US (at 12 years of age), and vaccinating older girls and women in catch-up programs (to 18, 21, or 26 years of age). The study also examined the health benefits of averting other HPV-16-related and HPV-18-related cancers, the prevention of HPV-6-related and HPV-11-related genital warts and…
Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Chronic Disease/Risk | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2008Mathematical Models of Cervical Cancer Prevention in the Asia Pacific Region
This article reports on a model-based approach to estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, …
This article reports on a model-based approach to estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/DALY averted) for vaccination of young adolescent girls against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18. The authors used population-based and epidemiologic data for 25 countries in Asia (22 GAVI-Alliance eligible countries, Thailand, China and Japan). They found that an absolute reduction in lifetime cancer risk varied across countries, depending on incidence,…
Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Chronic Disease/Risk | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2008Health and Economic Impact of HPV 16 and 18 Vaccination and Cervical Cancer Screening in India
As cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer death among women in low-income countries, …
As cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer death among women in low-income countries, with approximately 25% of cases worldwide occurring in India, these authors estimated the potential health and economic impact of different cervical cancer prevention strategies in India. After empirically calibrating a cervical cancer model to country-specific epidemiologic data, they projected cancer incidence, life expectancy, and lifetime costs (I$2005), and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/YLS) for the following strategies: pre-adolescent vaccination of…
Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Chronic Disease/Risk | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2020Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on 5-Year Net Survival of 11 Cancers in 200 Countries
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 …
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 countries/territories for 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate). The paper estimated current 5-year net survival for diagnosed cancers in each country and potential survival gains from increasing the availability of individual treatment and imaging modalities, and more comprehensive packages of scale-up. Global 5-year net survival for all 11 cancers (combined) is…
Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Chronic Disease/Risk | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Global -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on Global Breast Cancer Survival
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival …
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival for women with newly diagnosed breast cancer in 200 countries/territories in 2018, accounting for the availability and stage-specific survival impact of specific treatment modalities (chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery, and targeted therapy), imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, and single-photon emission computed tomography [SPECT]), and quality of cancer care. The model was calibrated to empirical data on 5-year net breast cancer…
Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Clinical Care | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2015Cancer Models and Real-World Data: Better Together
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of …
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of the long-term consequences of care. While models have been influential in informing US cancer screening guidelines under ideal conditions, incorporating detailed data on real-world screening practice has been limited given the complexity of screening processes and behaviors throughout diverse health delivery systems in the United States. The authors describe the synergies that exist between decision-analytic models and health care utilization…
Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Chronic Disease/Risk | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America