Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Policy Makers, the International Community and the Population: Case Study on HIV/AIDS
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. …
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time." The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost…
Global | Infectious Diseases | Decision Psychology | Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Global | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Transmission | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Simulation | Health Systems | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection
Given the importance of controlling latent TB infection (LTBI) as part of the End TB …
Given the importance of controlling latent TB infection (LTBI) as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, the authors felt that changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, made it necessary to re-assess the global burden of LTBI. The authors used constructed trends in annual risk in infection to calculate the number and proportions of individuals infected, recently infected, and recently infected with isoniazid (INH)-resistant strains, aggregated…
Global | Infectious Diseases | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016UHC for Mental, Neurological, and Substance Use Disorders: An Extended CEA
This study uses extended cost effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to analyze the impacts of universal public …
This study uses extended cost effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to analyze the impacts of universal public finance (UPF) on epilepsy, schizophrenia, and depression in India and Ethiopia. The Ethiopian government has launched a National Mental Health Strategy which explicitly recognizes the importance of an efficient, equitable scale-up of mental health care within a broader, ongoing effort to increase levels of health insurance in the general population. The analyses show that enhanced coverage of effective treatment leads…
Global | Mental Health | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Social Determinants | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016Using Top-Down and Bottom-Up Costing Approaches in LMICs
In the absence of routine cost data collection, estimating the incremental costs of scaling-up novel …
In the absence of routine cost data collection, estimating the incremental costs of scaling-up novel technologies in low-income and middle-income countries is a methodologically challenging and substantial empirical undertaking. Using the example of costing the scale-up of Xpert Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB)/resistance to riframpicin (RIF) in South Africa, the authors estimate costs, by applying two distinct approaches of bottom-up and top-down costing, together with an assessment of processes and capacity. The unit costs measured using the…
Global | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2014Cost-Effectiveness of Female HPV Vaccination in 179 Countries: A PRIME Modelling Study
The authors present a simple generic model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME), …
The authors present a simple generic model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME), used to assess cost-effectiveness and health effects of vaccination of girls against HPV before sexual debut in terms of burden of cervical cancer and mortality. The PRIME models incidence according to proposed vaccine efficacy against HPV 16/18, vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, and HPV type distribution. It assumes lifelong vaccine protection and no changes to other screening programs…
Global | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2011Dynamic Policies for Controlling Spread of Emerging Infections
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control …
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where two types of interventions are assumed to be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. A modeling approach is described for developing dynamic health policies that allow…
Global | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology