Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2020Conspiracy Theories as Barriers to Controlling the Spread of COVID-19 in the U.S.
This article uses national probability survey data of U.S. adults to assess the relationship between …
This article uses national probability survey data of U.S. adults to assess the relationship between belief in three COVID-19-related conspiracy theories to adoption of preventive measures recommended by public health authorities, vaccination intentions, conspiracy beliefs, perceptions of threat, belief about the safety of vaccines, political ideology, and media exposure patterns. Authors found that conspiracy theory beliefs were highly stable across two periods of the survey and inversely related to the (1) perceived threat of the…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Culture/Society | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020New Fronts in the War on Misinformation
The countless false claims that have spread alongside the novel coronavirus – inaccurate advice about …
The countless false claims that have spread alongside the novel coronavirus – inaccurate advice about how to prevent the virus, for example, and conspiracy theories about its origins – are just the latest manifestation of an ongoing problem: the online proliferation of misinformation about science and health. The National Academies hosted and helped organize three events focused on countering misinformation: The MisinfoCon conference, a Wikipedia Edit-a-thon, and a meeting to explore ways to expand successful…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Education/Labor | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2018Should We Treat Acute Hepatitis C? A Decision and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
This study examines the potential benefits of treating acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection compared …
This study examines the potential benefits of treating acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection compared to deferring treatment until the chronic phase, utilizing a microsimulation model. By projecting long-term outcomes such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs, the analysis evaluates the cost-effectiveness of initiating therapy during the acute phase. Results indicate that treating acute HCV increases QALYs by 0.02 and costs by $483 per patient not at risk of transmitting HCV, yielding an incremental…
Microsimulation | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Revealed Willingness-to-Pay vs. Standard Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds
This study estimates the cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) of 16 HIV programs in South Africa. The …
This study estimates the cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) of 16 HIV programs in South Africa. The use of CETs based on a country’s income per capita has been criticized for not being grounded in theory or evidence, especially in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). An alternative has been produced for South Africa, based on estimates of life years saved and the country’s committed HIV budget. The authors used a previously -published optimization method to estimate CETs,…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Preferences/Values | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Policy Makers, the International Community and the Population: Case Study on HIV/AIDS
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. …
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time." The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Decision Psychology | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Challenges of Prioritization
Cost-effectiveness analysis has traditionally been applied primarily to very specific interventions, such as drugs and …
Cost-effectiveness analysis has traditionally been applied primarily to very specific interventions, such as drugs and diagnostics; in addition, the evidence base drawn on for evaluating such interventions is relatively good, given the medical research industry surrounding their testing. However, with increasing success in controlling infectious diseases, many of the health challenges facing countries concern broad threats to health with multiple causes, such as obesity, where the relationship between policy action and health benefit is not…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Mental Health | Infectious Diseases | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2013Validation and Calibration of a Simulation Model of Pediatric HIV Infection
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of …
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model framework. This CEPAC-Pediatric model was then validated by varying CD4 data and comparing the corresponding model-generated survival curves to empirical survival curves obtained from the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). The model was calibrated to other African countries by systematically varying immunologic and HIV mortality-related input parameters. In the calibration analyses, the model-generated…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2011Health and Economic Impact of HPV 16/18 Vaccination and Cervical Cancer Screening in Eastern Africa
In this article the authors use epidemiologic data from Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe …
In this article the authors use epidemiologic data from Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe to develop models of HPV-related infection and disease. For each country, they assessed HPV vaccination of girls before age 12 followed by screening with HPV DNA testing once, twice, or three times per lifetime (at ages 35, 40, 45). For women over age 30, they assessed only screening (with HPV DNA testing up to three times per lifetime or VIA…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Sub-Saharan Africa